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Quantitatively analyze the impact of land use/land cover change on annual runoff decrease

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  • Jianzhu Li
  • Senming Tan
  • Fulong Chen
  • Ping Feng

Abstract

Annual runoff in Luanhe river basin was detected a downward trend and caused water crisis in Tianjin, China. To quantify the decreased runoff volume, Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt test were employed to check whether there existed significant trend and change points for annual rainfall and runoff time series in Panjiakou reservoir basin and 8 sub-watersheds. It was found that the annual runoff time series had a significant downward trend at 5 % confidence level, and the change point was at 1979 in Panjiakou reservoir watershed. Then double mass curve of annual rainfall and annual runoff was plotted, and two lines were fitted before and after 1979, respectively. Based on this method, the comprehensive effects of land use/land cover change on annual runoff were estimated. To further quantify the contributions of each main factor to annual runoff decrease, water stored in check dams and social water use in different periods were surveyed first. And then multi-linear regression was used to develop the relations between annual runoff and the driven factors. Water area decrease was identified to be the main factor contributing to annual runoff reduction. The results in this study can provide valuable information for water resources planners and policy makers. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Jianzhu Li & Senming Tan & Fulong Chen & Ping Feng, 2014. "Quantitatively analyze the impact of land use/land cover change on annual runoff decrease," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 1191-1207, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:74:y:2014:i:2:p:1191-1207
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1237-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bahram Saghafian & Hassan Farazjoo & Babak Bozorgy & Farhad Yazdandoost, 2008. "Flood Intensification due to Changes in Land Use," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(8), pages 1051-1067, August.
    2. Nicola Ranger & Stéphane Hallegatte & Sumana Bhattacharya & Murthy Bachu & Satya Priya & K. Dhore & Farhat Rafique & P. Mathur & Nicolas Naville & Fanny Henriet & Celine Herweijer & Sanjib Pohit & Jan, 2011. "An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 139-167, January.
    3. Khan, A. R., 2001. "Searching evidence for climatic change: Analysis of hydro-meteorological time series in the Upper Indus Basin," IWMI Working Papers H028687, International Water Management Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jianzhu Li & Shuhan Zhou & Rong Hu, 2016. "Hydrological Drought Class Transition Using SPI and SRI Time Series by Loglinear Regression," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 669-684, January.
    2. Yixuan Wang & Jianzhu Li & Ping Feng & Fulong Chen, 2015. "Effects of large-scale climate patterns and human activities on hydrological drought: a case study in the Luanhe River basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(3), pages 1687-1710, April.
    3. Shengqi Jian & Peiqing Xiao & Yan Tang & Peng Jiao, 2023. "Runoff–Sediment Simulation of Typical Small Watershed in Loess Plateau of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-16, March.
    4. Jianzhu Li & Guoqing Li & Shuhan Zhou & Fulong Chen, 2016. "Quantifying the Effects of Land Surface Change on Annual Runoff Considering Precipitation Variability by SWAT," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1071-1084, February.
    5. Ying Li & Suiliang Huang, 2015. "Landscape Ecological Risk Responses to Land Use Change in the Luanhe River Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-22, December.

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