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Scenario analysis of flood control structures using a multi-criteria decision-making technique in Northeast Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Raoof Mostafazadeh

    (Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili
    Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources)

  • Amir Sadoddin

    (Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources)

  • Abdolreza Bahremand

    (Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources)

  • Vahed Berdi Sheikh

    (Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources)

  • Arash Zare Garizi

    (Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources)

Abstract

Predicting the impacts of flood control measures to determine the best spatial distribution and specifications of check dams assists managers and engineers in planning flood control projects. The focus of this paper is on scenario analysis of check dam construction using a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) technique in the Jafar-Abad Watershed, Golestan Province, Iran. Based on spatial distribution, number and elevation of check dams, eight structural management scenarios were developed. For each scenario, flood hydrographs for different return periods were simulated using the HEC-HMS model. To predict the impacts of implementing the management scenarios, some hydrologic and hydroeconomic indices were quantified for each management scenario. To weight the indices, expert knowledge was elicited using the Delphi process. A MCDM approach was employed to choose the best management scenarios. The analysis shows that Scenario 7 (increasing the number of check dams from 58 to 69) is the best management scenario from the hydrologic perspective. In addition, best management scenarios from hydroeconomic perspective are Scenario 1 (current condition), and Scenario 5 (with only 15 check dams on an upstream sub-watershed), respectively. The approach implemented in this research is a useful way to allocate flood control measures efficiently and effectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Raoof Mostafazadeh & Amir Sadoddin & Abdolreza Bahremand & Vahed Berdi Sheikh & Arash Zare Garizi, 2017. "Scenario analysis of flood control structures using a multi-criteria decision-making technique in Northeast Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1827-1846, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:87:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2851-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2851-1
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