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Monte Carlo analysis of the effect of spatial distribution of storms on prioritization of flood source areas

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  • Bahram Saghafian
  • Saeed Golian
  • Mohammad Elmi
  • Ruhangiz Akhtari

Abstract

Implementation of structural and non-structural flood control measures in flood-prone watersheds is on increasing demand. Different watershed areas are not necessarily hydrologically similar and impose variable effects on the outlet flow hydrograph. Meanwhile, prioritization of watershed areas in terms of flood generation is essential for economic flood control planning. Previous works have focused on the definition of a flood index that quantifies the contribution of each subwatershed unit or grid cell to the outlet flood hydrograph through the application of unit flood response (UFR) approach. In the present research, for the first time, the effect of spatial pattern of storm events on the flood index variation was assessed via a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. To do so, the UFR approach was carried out for a large number of randomly generated rainfall spatial pattern. The proposed methodology was adopted to the Tangrah watershed in northern Iran. The watershed is frequently hit by floods that have historically caused loss of life and properties. The results indicated that for the more frequent flood events, the flood index is quite sensitive to the spatial distribution of rainfall such that for the highest ranked subwatershed (SW6), the standardized variation of the flood index values (i.e., the uncertainty range) decreases from 1.0 to 0.5 when the rainfall depth increases from 20 to 150 mm, respectively. The results further revealed that increasing the rainfall depth from 20 to 150 mm would cause the effect of rainfall spatial distribution on subwatersheds’ flood indices to diminish. The implications are that if flood control measures are designed for more frequent floods with lower return periods, an uncertainty analysis is required to identify the range of flood index variations. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Bahram Saghafian & Saeed Golian & Mohammad Elmi & Ruhangiz Akhtari, 2013. "Monte Carlo analysis of the effect of spatial distribution of storms on prioritization of flood source areas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 1059-1071, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:66:y:2013:i:2:p:1059-1071
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0537-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bahram Saghafian & Hassan Farazjoo & Babak Bozorgy & Farhad Yazdandoost, 2008. "Flood Intensification due to Changes in Land Use," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(8), pages 1051-1067, August.
    2. Sujata Gupta & Akram Javed & Divya Datt, 2003. "Economics of Flood Protection in India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 28(1), pages 199-210, January.
    3. B. Saghafian & B. Ghermezcheshmeh & M. Kheirkhah, 2010. "Iso-flood severity mapping: a new tool for distributed flood source identification," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 55(2), pages 557-570, November.
    4. Saeed Golian & Bahram Saghafian & Reza Maknoon, 2010. "Derivation of Probabilistic Thresholds of Spatially Distributed Rainfall for Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3547-3559, October.
    5. Samuel Brody & Jung Kang & Sarah Bernhardt, 2010. "Identifying factors influencing flood mitigation at the local level in Texas and Florida: the role of organizational capacity," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 52(1), pages 167-184, January.
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