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Evaluation of rainfall‑threshold methods for flash flood warnings based on soil moisture conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Yuting Zhao

    (Sichuan University)

  • Xuemei Wu

    (Sichuan University)

  • Li Guo

    (Sichuan University)

  • Guanghua Qin

    (Sichuan University)

  • Xiaodong Li

    (Sichuan University)

  • Hongxia Li

    (Sichuan University)

Abstract

Accurate flash flood warning is crucial for hazard risk management. Rainfall threshold is one of the most effective approaches for flash flood early warning. However, the capability of different rainfall-threshold methods has been insufficiently evaluated and validated, and the influence of data limitations on the model performance still needs to be explored. In this work, we comprehensively evaluate and compare three rainfall-threshold methods (empirical, hydrological, and probabilistic) based on soil moisture conditions for flash flood warnings in two small mountainous catchments with different data features. Results show that all three methods obtain good accuracy (Hit Rate (HR) > 0.80, False Alarm Rate (FAR)

Suggested Citation

  • Yuting Zhao & Xuemei Wu & Li Guo & Guanghua Qin & Xiaodong Li & Hongxia Li, 2025. "Evaluation of rainfall‑threshold methods for flash flood warnings based on soil moisture conditions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(10), pages 12053-12076, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:10:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07272-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07272-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Junfu Gong & Cheng Yao & Zhijia Li & Yuanfang Chen & Yingchun Huang & Bingxing Tong, 2021. "Improving the flood forecasting capability of the Xinanjiang model for small- and medium-sized ungauged catchments in South China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 2077-2109, April.
    2. Saeed Golian & Bahram Saghafian & Reza Maknoon, 2010. "Derivation of Probabilistic Thresholds of Spatially Distributed Rainfall for Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3547-3559, October.
    3. Xiaoyan Zhai & Liang Guo & Ronghua Liu & Yongyong Zhang, 2018. "Rainfall threshold determination for flash flood warning in mountainous catchments with consideration of antecedent soil moisture and rainfall pattern," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(2), pages 605-625, November.
    4. Wenlin Yuan & Meiqi Liu & Fang Wan, 2019. "Calculation of Critical Rainfall for Small-Watershed Flash Floods Based on the HEC-HMS Hydrological Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(7), pages 2555-2575, May.
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