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Assessment of Dam Overtopping Reliability using SUFI Based Overtopping Threshold Curve

Author

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  • A. Sharafati

    (Islamic Azad University)

  • H. M. Azamathulla

    (Fiji National University)

Abstract

Estimation of earth-fill dam height and dimension of spillway are strongly depend on accurate evaluation of dam overtopping reliability. Ideally, whole random and effective variables on overtopping should be considered for dam overtopping reliability assessment. However, taking into account all affecting random variables as well as overtopping reliability assessment using algorithms such as Monte Carlo (MC) could be excessively time consuming and impossible in some cases. In this study, new approach has been introduced as conditional reliability method and it has been tried to reduce the simulations time significantly by using combination of rainfall threshold theory, SUFI (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting) and MC methods. According two defined indexes, the obtain results shown, the relative error of new approach in computation of Jamishan dam overtopping reliability is less than 0.23%. Also, time saving in new method against to regular MC method is more than 87%. So, the new introduced method has more efficiency with acceptable accuracy for assessment of dam overtopping reliability. In addition, among hydrological and hydraulic uncertainties, hydrological uncertainties have more effect on overtopping reliability.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Sharafati & H. M. Azamathulla, 2018. "Assessment of Dam Overtopping Reliability using SUFI Based Overtopping Threshold Curve," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(7), pages 2369-2383, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:7:d:10.1007_s11269-018-1934-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1934-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kasim Yenigun & Cevat Erkek, 2007. "Reliability in dams and the effects of spillway dimensions on risk levels," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(4), pages 747-760, April.
    2. Saeed Golian & Bahram Saghafian & Reza Maknoon, 2010. "Derivation of Probabilistic Thresholds of Spatially Distributed Rainfall for Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3547-3559, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shirin Karimi & Bahman Jabbarian Amiri & Arash Malekian, 2019. "Similarity Metrics-Based Uncertainty Analysis of River Water Quality Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(6), pages 1927-1945, April.
    2. Rajabzadeh, Vida & Hekmatzadeh, Ali Akbar & Tabatabaie Shourijeh, Piltan & Torabi Haghighi, Ali, 2023. "Introducing a probabilistic framework to measure dam overtopping risk for dams benefiting from dual spillways," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Ahmad Sharafati & Siyamak Doroudi & Shamsuddin Shahid & Ali Moridi, 2021. "A Novel Stochastic Approach for Optimization of Diversion System Dimension by Considering Hydrological and Hydraulic Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(11), pages 3649-3677, September.

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