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Flood frequency analysis based on simulated peak discharges

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  • Bahram Saghafian
  • Saeed Golian
  • Alireza Ghasemi

Abstract

Flood frequency approaches vary from statistical methods, directly applied on the observed annual maximum flood series, to adopting rainfall–runoff simulation models that transform design rainfalls to flood discharges. Reliance on statistical flood frequency analysis depends on several factors such as the selected probability distribution function, estimation of the function parameters, possible outliers, and length of the observed flood series. Through adopting the simulation approach in this paper, watershed-average rainfalls of various occurrence probabilities were transformed into the corresponding peak discharges using a calibrated hydrological model. A Monte Carlo scheme was employed to consider the uncertainties involved in rainfall spatial patterns and antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). For any given rainfall depth, realizations of rainfall spatial distribution and AMC conditions were entered as inputs to the model. Then, floods of different return periods were simulated by transforming rainfall to runoff. The approach was applied to Tangrah watershed in northeastern Iran. It was deduced that the spatial rainfall distribution and the AMCs exerted a varying influence on the peak discharge of different return periods. Comparing the results of the simulation approach with those of the statistical frequency analysis revealed that, for a given return period, flood quantiles based on the observed series were greater than the corresponding simulated discharges. It is also worthy to note that existence of outliers and the selection of the statistical distribution function has a major effect in increasing the differences between the results of the two approaches. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Bahram Saghafian & Saeed Golian & Alireza Ghasemi, 2014. "Flood frequency analysis based on simulated peak discharges," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 403-417, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:71:y:2014:i:1:p:403-417
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0925-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James Charalambous & Ataur Rahman & Don Carroll, 2013. "Application of Monte Carlo Simulation Technique to Design Flood Estimation: A Case Study for North Johnstone River in Queensland, Australia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 4099-4111, September.
    2. Saeed Golian & Bahram Saghafian & Reza Maknoon, 2010. "Derivation of Probabilistic Thresholds of Spatially Distributed Rainfall for Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3547-3559, October.
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    1. Ahmet Ozan Celik & Volkan Kiricci & Canberk Insel, 2017. "Reassessment of the flood damage at a river diversion hydropower plant site: lessons learned from a case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(2), pages 833-847, March.
    2. Naser Dehghanian & S. Saeid Mousavi Nadoushani & Bahram Saghafian & Ruhangiz Akhtari, 2019. "Performance Evaluation of a Fuzzy Hybrid Clustering Technique to Identify Flood Source Areas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4621-4636, October.
    3. Jean-Marie Zokagoa & Azzeddine Soulaïmani & Pierre Dupuis, 2021. "Flood risk mapping using uncertainty propagation analysis on a peak discharge: case study of the Mille Iles River in Quebec," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 285-310, May.
    4. Sonali Swetapadma & C. S. P. Ojha, 2020. "Selection of a basin-scale model for flood frequency analysis in Mahanadi river basin, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(1), pages 519-552, May.
    5. Daniela Biondi & Davide Luca, 2015. "Process-based design flood estimation in ungauged basins by conditioning model parameters on regional hydrological signatures," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 1015-1038, November.
    6. Bagher Heidarpour & Bahram Saghafian & Jafar Yazdi & Hazi Mohammad Azamathulla, 2017. "Effect of Extraordinary Large Floods on at-site Flood Frequency," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(13), pages 4187-4205, October.

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