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Forecasting of meteorological drought using Wavelet-ANFIS hybrid model for different time steps (case study: southeastern part of east Azerbaijan province, Iran)

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  • Bagher Shirmohammadi
  • Hamidreza Moradi
  • Vahid Moosavi
  • Majid Semiromi
  • Ali Zeinali

Abstract

Drought is accounted as one of the most natural hazards. Studying on drought is important for designing and managing of water resources systems. This research is carried out to evaluate the ability of Wavelet-ANN and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) techniques for meteorological drought forecasting in southeastern part of East Azerbaijan province, Iran. The Wavelet-ANN and ANFIS models were first trained using the observed data recorded from 1952 to 1992 and then used to predict meteorological drought over the test period extending from 1992 to 2011. The performances of the different models were evaluated by comparing the corresponding values of root mean squared error coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. In this study, more than 1,000 model structures including artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neural-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and Wavelet-ANN models were tested in order to assess their ability to forecast the meteorological drought for one, two, and three time steps (6 months) ahead. It was demonstrated that wavelet transform can improve meteorological drought modeling. It was also shown that ANFIS models provided more accurate predictions than ANN models. This study confirmed that the optimum number of neurons in the hidden layer could not be always determined using specific formulas; hence, it should be determined using a trial-and-error method. Also, decomposition level in wavelet transform should be delineated according to the periodicity and seasonality of data series. The order of models with regard to their accuracy is as following: Wavelet-ANFIS, Wavelet-ANN, ANFIS, and ANN, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, no research has been published that explores coupling wavelet analysis with ANFIS for meteorological drought and no research has tested the efficiency of these models to forecast the meteorological drought in different time scales as of yet. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Bagher Shirmohammadi & Hamidreza Moradi & Vahid Moosavi & Majid Semiromi & Ali Zeinali, 2013. "Forecasting of meteorological drought using Wavelet-ANFIS hybrid model for different time steps (case study: southeastern part of east Azerbaijan province, Iran)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(1), pages 389-402, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:69:y:2013:i:1:p:389-402
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0716-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Firat, Mahmut & Güngör, Mahmud, 2007. "River flow estimation using adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 87-96.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shahram Kaboodvandpour & Jamil Amanollahi & Samira Qhavami & Bakhtiyar Mohammadi, 2015. "Assessing the accuracy of multiple regressions, ANFIS, and ANN models in predicting dust storm occurrences in Sanandaj, Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(2), pages 879-893, September.
    2. Anshuka Anshuka & Floris F. van Ogtrop & R. Willem Vervoort, 2019. "Drought forecasting through statistical models using standardised precipitation index: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(2), pages 955-977, June.
    3. Vahid Moosavi & Ali Talebi & Mohammad Reza Hadian, 2017. "Development of a Hybrid Wavelet Packet- Group Method of Data Handling (WPGMDH) Model for Runoff Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(1), pages 43-59, January.
    4. Mohammed A. A. Al-qaness & Ahmed A. Ewees & Hong Fan & Mohamed Abd Elaziz, 2020. "Optimized Forecasting Method for Weekly Influenza Confirmed Cases," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-12, May.
    5. Yaroslav Vyklyuk & Milan Radovanović & Boško Milovanović & Taras Leko & Milan Milenković & Zoran Milošević & Ana Milanović Pešić & Dejana Jakovljević, 2017. "Hurricane genesis modelling based on the relationship between solar activity and hurricanes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(2), pages 1043-1062, January.
    6. Anurag Malik & Anil Kumar & Rajesh P. Singh, 2019. "Application of Heuristic Approaches for Prediction of Hydrological Drought Using Multi-scalar Streamflow Drought Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(11), pages 3985-4006, September.
    7. Iman Khosravi & Yaser Jouybari-Moghaddam & Mohammad Reza Sarajian, 2017. "The comparison of NN, SVR, LSSVR and ANFIS at modeling meteorological and remotely sensed drought indices over the eastern district of Isfahan, Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1507-1522, July.

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