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Forecasting Daily Streamflow for Basins with Different Physical Characteristics through Data-Driven Methods

Author

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  • Sinan Jasim Hadi

    (Anadolu University)

  • Mustafa Tombul

    (Anadolu University)

Abstract

Modelling streamflow is essential for activities, such as flood control, drought mitigation, and water resources utilization and management. Artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and support vector machines (SVM) are techniques that are frequently used in hydrology to specifically model streamflow. This study compares the accuracy of ANN, ANFIS, and SVM in forecasting the daily streamflow with the traditional approach known as autoregressive (AR) model for basins with different physical characteristics. The accuracies of the models are compared for three basins, that is, 1801, 1805, and 1822, at the Seyhan River Basin in Turkey. The comparison was performed by using coefficient of efficiency, index of agreement, and root-mean-square error. Results indicate that ANN and ANFIS are more accurate than AR and SVM for all the basins. ANN and ANFIS perform similarly, while ANN outperformed ANFIS. Among the models used, the ANN demonstrates the highest performance in forecasting the peak flood values. This study also finds that physical characteristics, such as small area, high slope, and high elevation variation, and streamflow variance deteriorate the accuracy of the methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Sinan Jasim Hadi & Mustafa Tombul, 2018. "Forecasting Daily Streamflow for Basins with Different Physical Characteristics through Data-Driven Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(10), pages 3405-3422, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-018-1998-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1998-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Maryam Rahimzad & Alireza Moghaddam Nia & Hosam Zolfonoon & Jaber Soltani & Ali Danandeh Mehr & Hyun-Han Kwon, 2021. "Performance Comparison of an LSTM-based Deep Learning Model versus Conventional Machine Learning Algorithms for Streamflow Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 4167-4187, September.
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    5. Yutao Qi & Zhanao Zhou & Lingling Yang & Yining Quan & Qiguang Miao, 2019. "A Decomposition-Ensemble Learning Model Based on LSTM Neural Network for Daily Reservoir Inflow Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(12), pages 4123-4139, September.
    6. Peiman Parisouj & Hamid Mohebzadeh & Taesam Lee, 2020. "Employing Machine Learning Algorithms for Streamflow Prediction: A Case Study of Four River Basins with Different Climatic Zones in the United States," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(13), pages 4113-4131, October.
    7. Fang-Fang Li & Han Cao & Chun-Feng Hao & Jun Qiu, 2021. "Daily Streamflow Forecasting Based on Flow Pattern Recognition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(13), pages 4601-4620, October.

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