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Floods in the IPCC TAR Perspective

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  • Z. Kundzewicz
  • H.-J. Schellnhuber

Abstract

Recent floods have become more abundant and more destructive than ever in many regions of the globe. Destructive floods observed in the 1990s all over the world have led to record-high material damage, with total losses exceeding one billion US dollars in each of two dozen events. The immediate question emerges as to the extent to which a sensible rise in flood hazard and vulnerability can be linked to climate variability and change. Links between climate change and floods have found extensive coverage in the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since the material on floods is scattered over many places of two large volumes of the TAR, the present contribution - a guided tour to floods in the IPCC TAR – may help a reader notice the different angles from which floods were considered in the IPCC report. As the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere grows with temperature, the potential for intensive precipitation also increases. Higher and more intense precipitation has been already observed and this trend is expected to increase in the future, warmer world. This is a sufficient condition for flood hazard to increase. Yet there are also other, non-climatic, factors exacerbating flood hazard. According to the IPCC TAR, the analysis of extreme events in both observations and coupled models is underdeveloped. It is interesting that the perception of floods in different parts of the TAR is largely different. Large uncertainty is emphasized in the parts dealing with the science of climate change, but in the impact chapters, referring to sectors and regions, growth in flood risk is taken for granted. Floods have been identified on short lists of key regional concerns. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Z. Kundzewicz & H.-J. Schellnhuber, 2004. "Floods in the IPCC TAR Perspective," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 31(1), pages 111-128, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:31:y:2004:i:1:p:111-128
    DOI: 10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000020257.09228.7b
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    2. O. Ionuş & M. Licurici & M. Pătroescu & S. Boengiu, 2015. "Assessment of flood-prone stripes within the Danube drainage area in the South-West Oltenia Development Region, Romania," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 69-88, February.
    3. Zhangqi Zhong & Yiqin Hu & Lei Jiang, 2019. "Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Based on Spatial Panel Data Model: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-17, March.
    4. Octavio Rojas & María Mardones & Carolina Rojas & Carolina Martínez & Luis Flores, 2017. "Urban Growth and Flood Disasters in the Coastal River Basin of South-Central Chile (1943–2011)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-21, January.
    5. Zbigniew Kundzewicz & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Shinjiro Kanae, 2010. "River Floods in the Changing Climate—Observations and Projections," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(11), pages 2633-2646, September.
    6. Andrzej Wuczyński & Zbigniew Jakubiec, 2013. "Mortality of game mammals caused by an extreme flooding event in south-western Poland," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(1), pages 85-97, October.
    7. Fred Hattermann & Mathias Weiland & Shaochun Huang & Valentina Krysanova & Zbigniew Kundzewicz, 2011. "Model-Supported Impact Assessment for the Water Sector in Central Germany Under Climate Change—A Case Study," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(13), pages 3113-3134, October.
    8. Octavio Rojas & María Mardones & Carolina Martínez & Luis Flores & Katia Sáez & Alberto Araneda, 2018. "Flooding in Central Chile: Implications of Tides and Sea Level Increase in the 21st Century," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-17, November.
    9. Amin Owrangi & Robert Lannigan & Slobodan Simonovic, 2015. "Mapping climate change-caused health risk for integrated city resilience modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 67-88, May.
    10. Zbigniew Kundzewicz & Nicola Lugeri & Rutger Dankers & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Petra Döll & Iwona Pińskwar & Tomasz Dysarz & Stefan Hochrainer & Piotr Matczak, 2010. "Assessing river flood risk and adaptation in Europe—review of projections for the future," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(7), pages 641-656, October.
    11. Rojas, Carolina & Munizaga, Juan & Rojas, Octavio & Martínez, Carolina & Pino, Joan, 2019. "Urban development versus wetland loss in a coastal Latin American city: Lessons for sustainable land use planning," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 47-56.

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