IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v121y2025i6d10.1007_s11069-024-07099-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multi-index model for assessing population vulnerability and risk profiles after cyclone Amphan: a case study of Satkhira district

Author

Listed:
  • Tasnim Zarin Meem

    (Shahjalal University of Science and Technology)

  • Emon Barua

    (Shahjalal University of Science and Technology)

  • Md. Najmul Kabir

    (Shahjalal University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

Tropical cyclones often result in widespread destruction, particularly in vulnerable areas such as Bangladesh. The study focuses on vulnerable coastal communities in Satkhira, Bangladesh, towards tropical cyclones, particularly Cyclone Amphan, applying the multi-model approach to assess the risk, using six major domains: likely social conditions (SC), livelihood strategies (LS), knowledge level, preparedness level, activities during (DD) and after disaster (AD). A probability sampling method was used to select the number of respondents with a 95% confidence interval and 5% margin of error to ensure a sufficient number of representatives, and the sample size was 278. The analysis was integrated through Mean-models, explanatory factor analysis (EFA), confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and principal component analysis (PCA) to evaluate and validate the vulnerability patterns. The results bring out that SC (mean = 0.63) and LS (mean = 0.66), along with AD (mean = 0.88) domains, show significant vulnerabilities in the study area. EFA highlighted key interactions between socio-economic factors, CFA validated these patterns with robust fit indices (CFI = 0.979, RMSE = 0.029), and PCA effectively reduced the dataset dimension; the first nine principal components can describe 68% of the variance. The mean model demonstrated the best-fit model with R2 = 0.54, though every model depicts unique insights from the variables to observe the vulnerabilities. Key findings reveal the role of infrastructure deficiency, economic instability, and inadequate preparedness to mitigate the impact of disasters, exacerbating the risk in Satkhira. This research advances the understanding of vulnerability through methodological exactness. It combines statistical modelling with qualitative perceptions and highlights the importance of economic resilience, infrastructure development, and preparedness strategies. The study emphasizes its societal values in informing disaster risk reduction policies, reducing inequalities, and fostering sustainable recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Tasnim Zarin Meem & Emon Barua & Md. Najmul Kabir, 2025. "Multi-index model for assessing population vulnerability and risk profiles after cyclone Amphan: a case study of Satkhira district," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(6), pages 7551-7584, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s11069-024-07099-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-07099-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-07099-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-024-07099-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Melissa L. Finucane & Joie Acosta & Amanda Wicker & Katie Whipkey, 2020. "Short-Term Solutions to a Long-Term Challenge: Rethinking Disaster Recovery Planning to Reduce Vulnerabilities and Inequities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-19, January.
    2. Arif Mohaimin Sadri & Satish V. Ukkusuri & Seungyoon Lee & Rosalee Clawson & Daniel Aldrich & Megan Sapp Nelson & Justin Seipel & Daniel Kelly, 2018. "The role of social capital, personal networks, and emergency responders in post-disaster recovery and resilience: a study of rural communities in Indiana," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(3), pages 1377-1406, February.
    3. Dasgupta, Susmita & Wheeler, David & Bandyopadhyay, Sunando & Ghosh, Santadas & Roy, Utpal, 2022. "Coastal dilemma: Climate change, public assistance and population displacement," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Roman Hoffmann & Daniela Blecha, 2020. "Education and Disaster Vulnerability in Southeast Asia: Evidence and Policy Implications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, February.
    5. Apurva Pamidimukkala & Sharareh Kermanshachi & Nikhitha Adepu & Elnaz Safapour, 2021. "Resilience in Water Infrastructures: A Review of Challenges and Adoption Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-15, November.
    6. Zachary T. Goodman & Caitlin A. Stamatis & Justin Stoler & Christopher T. Emrich & Maria M. Llabre, 2021. "Methodological challenges to confirmatory latent variable models of social vulnerability," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 2731-2749, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Natalie Coleman & Chenyue Liu & Yiqing Zhao & Ali Mostafavi, 2023. "Lifestyle pattern analysis unveils recovery trajectories of communities impacted by disasters," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Aparna Kumari & Tim G. Frazier, 2021. "Evaluating social capital in emergency and disaster management and hazards plans," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 949-973, October.
    3. Yusuke Toyoda, 2021. "Survey paper: achievements and perspectives of community resilience approaches to societal systems," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 705-756, October.
    4. Yibin Ao & Ling Tan & Qiqi Feng & Liyao Tan & Hongfu Li & Yan Wang & Tong Wang & Yunfeng Chen, 2022. "Livelihood Capital Effects on Famers’ Strategy Choices in Flood-Prone Areas—A Study in Rural China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-19, June.
    5. Vo Hoang Ha & Takeshi Mizunoya & Nguyen Duc Kien & Truong Quang Dung & Le Thanh An & Nguyen Thai Phan & Nguyen Quang Tan & Pham Thi Trieu Tien & Nguyen Cong Dinh, 2022. "Post-flood recovery in the central coastal plain of Vietnam: determinants and policy implications," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 899-929, October.
    6. Carmen-Paz Castro-Correa & Paulina Aldunce Ide & Katherine Wyndham Vásquez & Dania Mena Maldonado & Sonia Pérez Tello, 2020. "Transformation of social capital during and after a disaster event: the cases Chañaral and Diego de Almagro, Atacama Region, Chile," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 2427-2440, September.
    7. Egamberdiev, Bekhzod, 2024. "Social capital effects on resilience to food insecurity: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 435-450.
    8. Fatemeh Asghari & Farzad Piadeh & Daniel Egyir & Hossein Yousefi & Joseph P. Rizzuto & Luiza C. Campos & Kourosh Behzadian, 2023. "Resilience Assessment in Urban Water Infrastructure: A Critical Review of Approaches, Strategies and Applications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-24, July.
    9. Dong, Shangjia & Wang, Haizhong & Mostafizi, Alireza & Song, Xuan, 2020. "A network-of-networks percolation analysis of cascading failures in spatially co-located road-sewer infrastructure networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 538(C).
    10. Krishna R. Reddy & Valeria Kandou & Rachel Havrelock & Ahmed Rachid El-Khattabi & Teresa Cordova & Matthew D. Wilson & Braeden Nelson & Citlalli Trujillo, 2023. "Reuse of Treated Wastewater: Drivers, Regulations, Technologies, Case Studies, and Greater Chicago Area Experiences," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-68, May.
    11. Xian Liu, 2022. "Analysis of Crop Sustainability Production Potential in Northwest China: Water Resources Perspective," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-17, October.
    12. Thuy Linh Nguyen & Chisato Asahi & Thi An Tran & Ngoc Hanh Le, 2022. "Indicator-based approach for flood vulnerability assessment in ancient heritage city of Hoi An, Central Region of Vietnam," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 2357-2385, November.
    13. Yuan Zhao & Ronak Paul & Sean Reid & Carolina Coimbra Vieira & Chris Wolfe & Yan Zhang & Rumi Chunara, 2024. "Constructing Social Vulnerability Indexes with Increased Data and Machine Learning Highlight the Importance of Wealth Across Global Contexts," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 175(2), pages 639-657, November.
    14. Piyush Pradhananga & Mohamed ElZomor, 2023. "Revamping Sustainability Efforts Post-Disaster by Adopting Circular Economy Resilience Practices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-19, November.
    15. Qian Gong & Yushan Duan & Fengtao Guo, 2021. "Disaster Risk Reduction Education in School Geography Curriculum: Review and Outlook from a Perspective of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, April.
    16. Brian Blankespoor & Susmita Dasgupta & Huq,Mainul & Khan,Zahirul Huque & Mustafa,Md. Golam & Wheeler,David, 2025. "Fishing and Climate Change in Coastal Bangladesh : The Economic and Health Impacts of Increasing Salinity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11048, The World Bank.
    17. Sumira Mir & Shamim Ahmad Shah & Mohmmad Shafi Bhat, 2025. "Disasters affecting education across time and space—a perspective from Kashmir," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 3125-3143, February.
    18. Hayatullah Mushwani & Abidullah Arabzai & Lutfullah Safi & Hayat Ullah & Amirullah Afghan & Afshana Parven, 2025. "Evaluation of flood hazard vulnerabilities and innovative management strategies in Afghanistan’s central region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(4), pages 4639-4655, March.
    19. Arnab K. Ghosh & Martin F. Shapiro & David Abramson, 2022. "Closing the Knowledge Gap in the Long-Term Health Effects of Natural Disasters: A Research Agenda for Improving Environmental Justice in the Age of Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-9, November.
    20. José Antonio Belso-Martínez & Alicia Mas-Tur & Mariola Sánchez & María José López-Sánchez, 2020. "The COVID-19 response system and collective social service provision. Strategic network dimensions and proximity considerations," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 14(3), pages 387-411, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s11069-024-07099-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.