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Synoptic patterns of extreme precipitation events in Northeast Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Matheus J. A. Lyra

    (Federal University of Alagoas)

  • Helber B. Gomes

    (Federal University of Alagoas)

  • Dirceu L. Herdies

    (National Institute for Space Research)

  • Silvio N. Figueroa

    (National Institute for Space Research)

  • Enver Ramirez

    (National Institute for Space Research)

  • José A. Aravéquia

    (National Institute for Space Research)

  • Maria C. L. Silva

    (Federal University of Alagoas)

  • Fabricio D. S. Silva

    (Federal University of Alagoas)

  • Heliofábio B. Gomes

    (Federal University of Alagoas)

  • Eder P. Vendrasco

    (National Institute for Space Research)

  • Leonardo Calvetti

    (Federal University of Pelotas)

  • Hugo A. Braga

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)

  • José A. Mantovani Jr.

    (National Institute for Space Research)

  • Jayant Pendharkar

    (National Institute for Space Research)

  • William Coelho

    (National Institute for Space Research)

  • Mário F. L. Quadro

    (Federal Institute of Santa Catarina)

  • Débora R. Roberti

    (Federal University of Santa Maria)

  • César A. A. Beneti

    (Sistema Meteorológico do Paraná)

  • Rafaela L. Costa

    (Federal University of Alagoas)

Abstract

Northeast Brazil (NEB) is one of the driest regions in the country, with some areas, such as the sertão, receiving less than 400 mm/year. Despite this aridity, NEB is influenced by various synoptic-scale systems that contribute to intense rainfall events throughout the year. This study aimed to identify and analyze the synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in NEB. There were selected four events that occurred in the region over the past eight years and significantly impacted metropolitan areas. Two cases occurred in eastern, one in southern, and one in northern sector of the study region. The results revealed that these extreme precipitation events were associated with different synoptic-scale systems. The easterly wave disturbance (EWD), upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex (UTCV), South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). EWD and UTCV were primarily responsible for the two eastern cases. The SACZ influenced the case that occurred in the southern, whereas the Atlantic ITCZ played a role in in northern case. Our findings indicate that these events are driven primarily by intense upper-level divergence and substantial moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean to the continent, leading to significant moisture convergence. This study provides crucial insights into the factors driving extreme precipitation events in NEB, which can aid in validating numerical weather prediction models.

Suggested Citation

  • Matheus J. A. Lyra & Helber B. Gomes & Dirceu L. Herdies & Silvio N. Figueroa & Enver Ramirez & José A. Aravéquia & Maria C. L. Silva & Fabricio D. S. Silva & Heliofábio B. Gomes & Eder P. Vendrasco &, 2025. "Synoptic patterns of extreme precipitation events in Northeast Brazil," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(6), pages 7511-7531, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s11069-024-07074-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-07074-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tapio Schneider & Tobias Bischoff & Gerald H. Haug, 2014. "Migrations and dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone," Nature, Nature, vol. 513(7516), pages 45-53, September.
    2. Jose Marengo & Mauro Bernasconi, 2015. "Regional differences in aridity/drought conditions over Northeast Brazil: present state and future projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 103-115, March.
    3. Andreas F. Prein & Roy M. Rasmussen & Kyoko Ikeda & Changhai Liu & Martyn P. Clark & Greg J. Holland, 2017. "The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 48-52, January.
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