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Regional differences in aridity/drought conditions over Northeast Brazil: present state and future projections

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  • Jose Marengo
  • Mauro Bernasconi

Abstract

The focus of this study is to investigate the risk of aridification in the semiarid lands of Northeast Brazil, using a variety of observational information and climate change projections for the future, by means of aridity indices. We use the Budyko and United Nations aridity indices to assess the extent of areas with semi-arid and arid conditions in the present, and for the future out to 2100. Climate projections are derived from the downscaling of the HadCM3 model for the A1B scenario using the Eta regional model with horizontal resolution of 40 km. Consistent with global climate model projections from IPCC AR5, regional climate change projections suggest an increase in dryness in the region, with rainfall reductions, temperature increases and water deficits and longer dry spells, leading to drought and arid conditions expected to prevail by the second half of the 21th century. The area with arid conditions is projected to grow to cover areas currently with dry sub humid conditions, and become larger by 2100. This increase in aridity, combined with land degradation may increase the risk of desertification. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

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  • Jose Marengo & Mauro Bernasconi, 2015. "Regional differences in aridity/drought conditions over Northeast Brazil: present state and future projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 103-115, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:129:y:2015:i:1:p:103-115
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1310-1
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    3. João Paulo Lyra Fialho Brêda & Rodrigo Cauduro Dias Paiva & Walter Collischon & Juan Martín Bravo & Vinicius Alencar Siqueira & Elisa Bolzan Steinke, 2020. "Climate change impacts on South American water balance from a continental-scale hydrological model driven by CMIP5 projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(4), pages 503-522, April.
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    14. de Jong, Pieter & Barreto, Tarssio B. & Tanajura, Clemente A.S. & Oliveira-Esquerre, Karla P. & Kiperstok, Asher & Andrade Torres, Ednildo, 2021. "The Impact of Regional Climate Change on Hydroelectric Resources in South America," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 76-91.
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    17. Silva, Antonio Samuel Alves & Menezes, Rômulo Simões Cezar & Rosso, Osvaldo A. & Stosic, Borko & Stosic, Tatijana, 2021. "Complexity entropy-analysis of monthly rainfall time series in northeastern Brazil," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    18. Alves Xavier, Sílvio Fernando & Xavier, Érika Fialho Morais & Jale, Jader Silva & Stosic, Tatijana & Santos, Carlos Antonio Costa dos, 2021. "Multiscale entropy analysis of monthly rainfall time series in Paraíba, Brazil," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
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    21. Henderson Castelo Sousa & Geocleber Gomes de Sousa & Thales Vinícius de Araújo Viana & Arthur Prudêncio de Araújo Pereira & Carla Ingryd Nojosa Lessa & Maria Vanessa Pires de Souza & José Marcelo da S, 2023. "Bacillus aryabhattai Mitigates the Effects of Salt and Water Stress on the Agronomic Performance of Maize under an Agroecological System," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, May.
    22. Maria Josiell Nascimento da Silva & Ahmad Saeed Khan & Patrícia Verônica Pinheiro Sales Lima, 2021. "Graywater Reuse: The Effects on Income and Agricultural Production Sustainability of Family Farming Systems in the Semiarid Region of Ceará, Brazil," Journal of Agricultural Studies, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 44-64, June.
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