IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v20y2023i6p4961-d1094595.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Future Projection of Extreme Precipitation Indices over the Qilian Mountains under Global Warming

Author

Listed:
  • Yanzhao Li

    (Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Xiang Qin

    (Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
    Qilianshan Observation and Research Station of Cryosphere and Ecologic Environment, State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Zizhen Jin

    (Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Yushuo Liu

    (Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
    Qilianshan Observation and Research Station of Cryosphere and Ecologic Environment, State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China)

Abstract

The Qilian Mountains are a climate-sensitive area in northwest China, and extreme precipitation events have an important impact on its ecological environment. Therefore, considering the global warming scenario, it is highly important to project the extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains in the future. This study is based on three CMIP6 models (CESM2, EC-Earth3, and KACE-1-0-G). A bias correction algorithm (QDM) was used to correct the precipitation outputs of the models. The eight extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains during the historical period and in the future were calculated using meteorological software (ClimPACT2), and the performance of the CMIP6 models to simulate the extreme precipitation indices of the Qilian Mountains in the historical period was evaluated. Results revealed that: (1) The corrected CMIP6 models could simulate the changes in extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains in the historical period relatively well, and the corrected CESM2 displayed better simulation as compared to the other two CMIP6 models. The CMIP6 models performed well while simulating R10mm (CC is higher than 0.71) and PRCPTOT (CC is higher than 0.84). (2) The changes in the eight extreme precipitation indices were greater with the enhancement of the SSP scenario. The growth rate of precipitation in the Qilian Mountains during the 21st century under SSP585 is significantly higher than the other two SSP scenarios. The increment of precipitation in the Qilian Mountains mainly comes from the increase in heavy precipitation. (3) The Qilian Mountains will become wetter in the 21st century, especially in the central and eastern regions. The largest increase in precipitation intensity will be observed in the western Qilian Mountains. Additionally, total precipitation will also increase in the middle and end of the 21st century under SSP585. Furthermore, the precipitation increment of the Qilian Mountains will increase with the altitude in the middle and end of the 21st century. This study aims to provide a reference for the changes in extreme precipitation events, glacier mass balance, and water resources in the Qilian Mountains during the 21st century.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanzhao Li & Xiang Qin & Zizhen Jin & Yushuo Liu, 2023. "Future Projection of Extreme Precipitation Indices over the Qilian Mountains under Global Warming," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-28, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:6:p:4961-:d:1094595
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/6/4961/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/6/4961/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Veronika Eyring & Peter M. Cox & Gregory M. Flato & Peter J. Gleckler & Gab Abramowitz & Peter Caldwell & William D. Collins & Bettina K. Gier & Alex D. Hall & Forrest M. Hoffman & George C. Hurtt & A, 2019. "Taking climate model evaluation to the next level," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(2), pages 102-110, February.
    2. Andreas F. Prein & Roy M. Rasmussen & Kyoko Ikeda & Changhai Liu & Martyn P. Clark & Greg J. Holland, 2017. "The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 48-52, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meng Guo & Shukai Cai, 2022. "Impact of Green Innovation Efficiency on Carbon Peak: Carbon Neutralization under Environmental Governance Constraints," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-18, August.
    2. Yuanfang Chai & Yao Yue & Louise J. Slater & Jiabo Yin & Alistair G. L. Borthwick & Tiexi Chen & Guojie Wang, 2022. "Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Zhang, Boling & Wang, Qian & Wang, Sixia & Tong, Ruipeng, 2023. "Coal power demand and paths to peak carbon emissions in China: A provincial scenario analysis oriented by CO2-related health co-benefits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    4. Yinglian Qi & Xiaoyan Pu & Yaxiong Li & Dingai Li & Mingrui Huang & Xuan Zheng & Jiaxin Guo & Zhi Chen, 2022. "Prediction of Suitable Distribution Area of Plateau pika ( Ochotona curzoniae ) in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-23, September.
    5. Amit Kumar & Abhilash Singh & Kumar Gaurav, 2023. "Assessing the synergic effect of land use and climate change on the upper Betwa River catchment in Central India under present, past, and future climate scenarios," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(6), pages 5163-5184, June.
    6. Espoir M. Bagula & Jackson Gilbert M. Majaliwa & Gustave N. Mushagalusa & Twaha A. Basamba & John-Baptist Tumuhairwe & Jean-Gomez M. Mondo & Patrick Musinguzi & Cephas B. Mwimangire & Géant B. Chuma &, 2022. "Climate Change Effect on Water Use Efficiency under Selected Soil and Water Conservation Practices in the Ruzizi Catchment, Eastern D.R. Congo," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-22, August.
    7. Jinling Piao & Wen Chen & Shangfeng Chen & Hainan Gong & Lin Wang, 2021. "Mean states and future projections of precipitation over the monsoon transitional zone in China in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-24, December.
    8. David W. Londe & Daniel Dvorett & Craig A. Davis & Scott R. Loss & Ellen P. Robertson, 2022. "Inundation of depressional wetlands declines under a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-19, June.
    9. G. M. Filippelli & J. L. Freeman & J. Gibson & S. Jay & M. J. Moreno-Madriñán & I. Ogashawara & F. S. Rosenthal & Y. Wang & E. Wells, 2020. "Climate change impacts on human health at an actionable scale: a state-level assessment of Indiana, USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 1985-2004, December.
    10. Farrell, Kaitlin J. & Ward, Nicole K. & Krinos, Arianna I. & Hanson, Paul C. & Daneshmand, Vahid & Figueiredo, Renato J. & Carey, Cayelan C., 2020. "Ecosystem-scale nutrient cycling responses to increasing air temperatures vary with lake trophic state," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 430(C).
    11. Xiangzhong Luo & Haoran Zhou & Tin W. Satriawan & Jiaqi Tian & Ruiying Zhao & Trevor F. Keenan & Daniel M. Griffith & Stephen Sitch & Nicholas G. Smith & Christopher J. Still, 2024. "Mapping the global distribution of C4 vegetation using observations and optimality theory," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Sabine Undorf & Karoliina Pulkkinen & Per Wikman-Svahn & Frida A.-M. Bender, 2022. "How do value-judgements enter model-based assessments of climate sensitivity?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-26, October.
    13. Ranjana Ray Chaudhuri & Prateek Sharma, 2020. "Addressing uncertainty in extreme rainfall intensity for semi-arid urban regions: case study of Delhi, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2307-2324, December.
    14. Lynn Conell‐Price & Carolyn Kousky & Howard Kunreuther, 2022. "Encouraging resiliency through autoenrollment in supplemental flood insurance coverage," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1109-1137, December.
    15. Xianan Jiang & Hui Su & Jonathan H. Jiang & J. David Neelin & Longtao Wu & Yoko Tsushima & Gregory Elsaesser, 2023. "Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Yu Huang & Hong-Li Ren & Jong-Seong Kug & Run Wang & Jingxin Li, 2023. "Projected change of East-Asian winter precipitation related to strong El Niño under the future emission scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(7), pages 1-21, July.
    17. Manoj Lamichhane & Sajal Phuyal & Rajnish Mahato & Anuska Shrestha & Usam Pudasaini & Sudeshma Dikshen Lama & Abin Raj Chapagain & Sushant Mehan & Dhurba Neupane, 2024. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow and Baseflow in the Karnali River Basin, Nepal: A CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble Approach Using SWAT and Web-Based Hydrograph Analysis Tool," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-40, April.
    18. Wei Zhang & Gabriele Villarini & Michael Wehner, 2019. "Contrasting the responses of extreme precipitation to changes in surface air and dew point temperatures," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 257-271, May.
    19. Nathan Lothrop & Nicolas Lopez-Galvez & Robert A. Canales & Mary Kay O’Rourke & Stefano Guerra & Paloma Beamer, 2022. "Sampling Low Air Pollution Concentrations at a Neighborhood Scale in a Desert U.S. Metropolis with Volatile Weather Patterns," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-13, March.
    20. Choi, Eseul & DePaula, Guilherme & Kyveryga, Peter & Fey, Suzanne, 2024. "The Trade-off between Yield and Nitrogen Pollution under Excessive Rainfall: Evidence from On-farm Field Experiments in Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 202402222018560000, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:6:p:4961-:d:1094595. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.