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A Markov chain model for earthquake occurrence analysis in Megathrust 4 (M4), Sumatra, Indonesia

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  • Randhy Pratama

    (Khalifa University)

  • Emilio Porcu

    (Khalifa University
    Khalifa University)

  • Bing Zhou

    (Khalifa University)

Abstract

Earthquakes are natural events with complicated spatio-temporal dynamics that can cause serious threats to human lives, infrastructure, and the environment. Understanding and effectively predicting earthquakes is critical for disaster preparation, mitigation, and response actions. This paper demonstrates modeling mainshock earthquakes in Megathrust 4 (M4), Sumatra, Indonesia, using a Markov chain framework with a K-Means cluster to form the state, which takes advantage of its probabilistic nature to reflect the stochastic aspects of seismic activity. The results of declustering with the Gardner-Knopoff process fulfill the assumption of the Poisson process, so that only the mainshock data are processed. A stationary distribution for the region and the mean recurrence time of the earthquake of each cluster were also determined after conducting a training and test on the model. According to the study findings, cluster 3 formed by K-Means clustering in M4 was found to have the shortest mean recurrence time, indicating more frequent seismic activity in that cluster.

Suggested Citation

  • Randhy Pratama & Emilio Porcu & Bing Zhou, 2025. "A Markov chain model for earthquake occurrence analysis in Megathrust 4 (M4), Sumatra, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(14), pages 16779-16797, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:14:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07450-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07450-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gignoux, Jérémie & Menéndez, Marta, 2016. "Benefit in the wake of disaster: Long-run effects of earthquakes on welfare in rural Indonesia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 26-44.
    2. Jérémie Gignoux & Marta Menéndez, 2016. "Benefit in the wake of disaster: Long-run effects of earthquakes on welfare in rural Indonesia," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-01245544, HAL.
    3. Chunhui Yuan & Haitao Yang, 2019. "Research on K-Value Selection Method of K-Means Clustering Algorithm," J, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-10, June.
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