Study on the temporal pattern and county-scale comprehensive risk assessment of wildfires in Sichuan Province

Climate change and increased human activity have resulted in an increase in the frequency and intensity of wildfires. Effective wildfire risk assessment is essential for disaster prevention, resource protection, and regional stability. Existing studies often overlook spatial heterogeneity and temporal patterns of wildfires, with limited county-scale quantitative assessments. To address these gaps, multidimensional wildfire risk assessment framework for Sichuan Province was proposed, combining temporal characterization with county-scale spatial modeling. Temporal trends and mutation patterns of wildfires from 2001 to 2023 were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test. Additionally, county-scale wildfire risk assessment model in Sichuan Province was constructed by combining hazard and vulnerability assessments. Specifically, wildfire hazard was assessed using Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model and capturing the spatial heterogeneity of driving factors. Vulnerability was assessed through Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis approach to identify areas of high vulnerability and their factor importance. The results indicated a significant rise in wildfires, particularly during winter and non-fire prevention periods. The MGWR model effectively captured spatial heterogeneity, identifying the highest hazard levels in southwestern Sichuan, particularly in Liangshan Prefecture and Panzhihua City. High vulnerability areas were scattered, mainly across southwestern, southern, and northern Sichuan. The integrated risk assessment revealed that Liangshan Prefecture and its surrounding counties exhibited significantly higher wildfire risk levels than other regions, while the eastern and northeastern regions demonstrated the lowest risk.