IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v107y2021i2d10.1007_s11069-021-04644-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatial patterns of long-term trends in thunderstorms in India

Author

Listed:
  • Soma Sen Roy

    (India Meteorological Department)

  • Shouraseni Sen Roy

    (University of Miami)

Abstract

Long-term trends in the frequency of thunderstorm days are investigated using fifty years of data recorded by weather observatories throughout India. An attempt has been made to identify whether the trends are spatially cohesive and collocated with regions with maximum of thunderstorm days. This analysis of trends is significant, since most of the weather over India is of convective origin and has devastating impact on life and property. There are three thunderstorm maximum regions (a) northwest Indian Himalayas and adjoining Pakistan, (b) east India and (c) extreme southern parts of peninsular India. The results of the study revealed on a monthly scale, the frequency of thunderstorm days has a consistent spatially cohesive decreasing trend over east central and northeast India, collocated with the intra-annually shifting maximum of thunderstorm activity. The trend is more diffused for the thunderstorm maxima over north and south peninsular India. Comparison with rainfall trends from previous studies indicates that this decreasing trend of thunderstorm days is in phase with decreasing trends in rainfall activity over east central and northeast Indian regions. Detailed analysis indicates that frequency of thunderstorm days over these regions decreased during the latter half of the twentieth century followed by gradually increasing trend. This corresponds to a global warming hiatus and matches similar findings around the world. It seems likely that the decreasing moisture inflow from the surrounding oceans into the Indian subcontinent throughout the year due to weakening of the land-sea thermal gradient is causing a decreasing trend in the convection during this period. Over north and south peninsular India, where circum-global planetary waves play an important role in triggering convection, the strengthening of these waves offsets the effect of the generally decreasing moisture.

Suggested Citation

  • Soma Sen Roy & Shouraseni Sen Roy, 2021. "Spatial patterns of long-term trends in thunderstorms in India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(2), pages 1527-1540, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:107:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04644-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04644-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-021-04644-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-021-04644-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ye Yu & Jiang-lin Li & Jin Xie & Chuan Liu, 2016. "Climatic characteristics of thunderstorm days and the influence of atmospheric environment in Northwestern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 823-838, January.
    2. Md Ali & Ismail Abustan & Md Rahman & Abu Haque, 2012. "Sustainability of Groundwater Resources in the North-Eastern Region of Bangladesh," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(3), pages 623-641, February.
    3. Mathew Koll Roxy & Kapoor Ritika & Pascal Terray & Raghu Murtugudde & Karumuri Ashok & B. N. Goswami, 2015. "Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-10, November.
    4. J. Revadekar & D. Kothawale & S. Patwardhan & G. Pant & K. Rupa Kumar, 2012. "About the observed and future changes in temperature extremes over India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(3), pages 1133-1155, February.
    5. Ye Yu & Jiang-lin Li & Jin Xie & Chuan Liu, 2016. "Climatic characteristics of thunderstorm days and the influence of atmospheric environment in Northwestern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 823-838, January.
    6. Pramod Kumar Yadava & Manish Soni & Sunita Verma & Harshbardhan Kumar & Ajay Sharma & Swagata Payra, 2020. "The major lightning regions and associated casualties over India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 101(1), pages 217-229, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hai-Min Lyu & Guo-Fu Wang & Wen-Chieh Cheng & Shui-Long Shen, 2017. "Tornado hazards on June 23 in Jiangsu Province, China: preliminary investigation and analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(1), pages 597-604, January.
    2. Kaustubh Salvi & Subimal Ghosh, 2016. "Projections of Extreme Dry and Wet Spells in the 21st Century India Using Stationary and Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Indices," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 667-681, December.
    3. Jayanta Das & A. T. M. Sakiur Rahman & Tapash Mandal & Piu Saha, 2021. "Exploring driving forces of large-scale unsustainable groundwater development for irrigation in lower Ganga River basin in India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 7289-7309, May.
    4. Abbas Afshar & Mohamad Amin Tavakoli & Ali Khodagholi, 2020. "Multi-Objective Hydro-Economic Modeling for Sustainable Groundwater Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(6), pages 1855-1869, April.
    5. Richard S. J. Tol, 2022. "State capacity and vulnerability to natural disasters," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 20, pages 434-457, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Vimal Mishra & Reepal Shah & Amit Garg, 2016. "Climate Change in Madhya Pradesh: Indicators, Impacts and Adaptation," Working Papers id:10844, eSocialSciences.
    7. Sarah F. W. Taylor & Michael J. Roberts & Ben Milligan & Ronney Ncwadi, 2019. "Measurement and implications of marine food security in the Western Indian Ocean: an impending crisis?," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1395-1415, December.
    8. Victor Ongoma & Haishan Chen & Chujie Gao & Aston Matwai Nyongesa & Francis Polong, 2018. "Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(2), pages 901-920, January.
    9. Kirby, J.M. & Ahmad, M.D. & Mainuddin, M. & Palash, W. & Quadir, M.E. & Shah-Newaz, S.M. & Hossain, M.M., 2015. "The impact of irrigation development on regional groundwater resources in Bangladesh," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 264-276.
    10. Shuchang Tang & Anouk Vlug & Shilong Piao & Fei Li & Tao Wang & Gerhard Krinner & Laurent Z. X. Li & Xuhui Wang & Guangjian Wu & Yue Li & Yuan Zhang & Xu Lian & Tandong Yao, 2023. "Regional and tele-connected impacts of the Tibetan Plateau surface darkening," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Mishra, Vimal & Shah, Reepal & Garg, Amit, 2016. "Climate Change in Madhya Pradesh: Indicators, Impacts and Adaptation," IIMA Working Papers WP2016-05-05, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    12. Mohsen Abbasnia, 2019. "Climatic characteristics of heat waves under climate change: a case study of mid-latitudes, Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 637-656, April.
    13. Jalilov, Shokhrukh-Mirzo & Rahman, Wakilur & Palash, Salauddin & Jahan, Hasneen & Mainuddin, Mohammed & Ward, Frank A., 2022. "Exploring strategies to control the cost of food security: Evidence from Bangladesh," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    14. P. Ramesh Kumar & S. S. V. S. Ramakrishna & Alok Sagar Gautam & Tomomi Narita, 2023. "Lightning activity over Telangana and Andhra Pradesh states situated in the east coast of India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 71-92, May.
    15. Mobin-ud Ahmad & Mac Kirby & Mohammad Islam & Md. Hossain & Md. Islam, 2014. "Groundwater Use for Irrigation and its Productivity: Status and Opportunities for Crop Intensification for Food Security in Bangladesh," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1415-1429, March.
    16. Neha Mittal & Ashok Mishra & Rajendra Singh, 2013. "Combining climatological and participatory approaches for assessing changes in extreme climatic indices at regional scale," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 603-615, August.
    17. Tejasvi Chauhan & Anjana Devanand & Mathew Koll Roxy & Karumuri Ashok & Subimal Ghosh, 2023. "River interlinking alters land-atmosphere feedback and changes the Indian summer monsoon," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    18. Alok Taori & Arun Suryavanshi & Sunil Pawar & M. V. R. Seshasai, 2022. "Establishment of lightning detection sensors network in India: generation of essential climate variable and characterization of cloud-to-ground lightning occurrences," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(1), pages 19-32, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:107:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04644-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.