IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v21y2019i2d10.1007_s10668-017-0052-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climatic characteristics of heat waves under climate change: a case study of mid-latitudes, Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Mohsen Abbasnia

    (Istanbul Technical University)

Abstract

In this study, daily temperature data from 44 synoptic stations were prepared over the vast territory of Iran during the observation period (1981–2010). Then, daily temperature data for two future periods (2041–2070 and 2071–2099) were simulated by using the statistical downscaling model of SDSM based on HadCM3 SRES A2, B2. After checking the simulation accuracy, 95th percentile threshold was used to identify the heat wave occurrences in the warm seasons of the year. Therefore, it is considered as a heat wave if the daily maximum temperature is higher than the 95th percentile threshold with at least three or more consecutive days. The results showed that the seasonal averages of heat waves intensity are expected to increase and the seasonal numbers of heat waves frequency are expected to decrease according to the output of all scenarios in coming decades. While the future duration of heat waves does not follow from stable patterns, however, long-lasting heat waves are more expected to happen in northern inland than southern coasts. Also, the lowland regions of southern coast are expected to have the lowest increasing changes in the heat waves frequency than northern highlands. While the southern coasts which experienced the strongest heat waves of the last decades are expected to have the worst conditions of future heat waves owing to the more potential availability of atmospheric humidity. Overall, the future occurrences of heat waves are expected to happen stronger and longer lasting along with lower frequencies in northern than southern latitudes.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Abbasnia, 2019. "Climatic characteristics of heat waves under climate change: a case study of mid-latitudes, Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 637-656, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:21:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10668-017-0052-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-017-0052-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-017-0052-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-017-0052-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Lelieveld & Y. Proestos & P. Hadjinicolaou & M. Tanarhte & E. Tyrlis & G. Zittis, 2016. "Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 245-260, July.
    2. Huanghe Gu & Guiling Wang & Zhongbo Yu & Rui Mei, 2012. "Assessing future climate changes and extreme indicators in east and south Asia using the RegCM4 regional climate model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 301-317, September.
    3. J. Revadekar & D. Kothawale & S. Patwardhan & G. Pant & K. Rupa Kumar, 2012. "About the observed and future changes in temperature extremes over India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(3), pages 1133-1155, February.
    4. Joeri Rogelj & Malte Meinshausen & Reto Knutti, 2012. "Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(4), pages 248-253, April.
    5. Jeremy S. Pal & Elfatih A. B. Eltahir, 2016. "Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 197-200, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Victor Ongoma & Haishan Chen & Chujie Gao & Aston Matwai Nyongesa & Francis Polong, 2018. "Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(2), pages 901-920, January.
    2. Ali Ahmadalipour & Hamid Moradkhani & Mukesh Kumar, 2019. "Mortality risk from heat stress expected to hit poorest nations the hardest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 569-579, March.
    3. Colin D. Butler, 2016. "Sounding the Alarm: Health in the Anthropocene," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-15, June.
    4. R Varela & L Rodríguez-Díaz & M deCastro, 2020. "Persistent heat waves projected for Middle East and North Africa by the end of the 21st century," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-18, November.
    5. Schaeffer, Michiel & Gohar, Laila & Kriegler, Elmar & Lowe, Jason & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2015. "Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 257-268.
    6. Malone, Thomas C. & DiGiacomo, Paul M. & Gonçalves, Emanuel & Knap, Anthony H. & Talaue-McManus, Liana & de Mora, Stephen, 2014. "A global ocean observing system framework for sustainable development," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 262-272.
    7. Soheil Shayegh & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2022. "International Migration Projections across Skill Levels in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-33, April.
    8. Giulio Fusco, 2022. "Climate Change and Food Security in the Northern and Eastern African Regions: A Panel Data Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-10, October.
    9. Bell, Kendon & Zilberman, David, 2016. "The potential for renewable fuels under greenhouse gas pricing: The case of sugarcane in Brazil," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt03h2850w, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    10. Kaj M. Hansen & Jesper H. Christensen & Jørgen Brandt, 2015. "The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-15, September.
    11. Kirsten Halsnæs & Lisa Bay & Mads Lykke Dømgaard & Per Skougaard Kaspersen & Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, 2020. "Accelerating Climate Service Development for Renewable Energy, Finance and Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    12. Nazan An & Mustafa Tufan Turp & Murat Türkeş & Mehmet Levent Kurnaz, 2020. "Mid-Term Impact of Climate Change on Hazelnut Yield," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-20, May.
    13. Evangelos Grigoroudis & Vassilis S. Kouikoglou & Yannis A. Phillis & Fotis D. Kanellos, 2021. "Energy sustainability: a definition and assessment model," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 1845-1885, September.
    14. Electra V. Petracou & Anastasios Xepapadeas & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2022. "Decision Making Under Model Uncertainty: Fréchet–Wasserstein Mean Preferences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 1195-1211, February.
    15. Grundy, Michael J. & Bryan, Brett A. & Nolan, Martin & Battaglia, Michael & Hatfield-Dodds, Steve & Connor, Jeffery D. & Keating, Brian A., 2016. "Scenarios for Australian agricultural production and land use to 2050," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 70-83.
    16. Marie-Noëlle WOILLEZ, 2019. "Revue de littérature sur le changement climatique au Maroc : observations, projections et impacts," Working Paper 7ae2aa2d-befc-471b-94be-9, Agence française de développement.
    17. Luke J. Harrington & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Friederike E. L. Otto, 2021. "Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. David Rodziewicz & Christopher J. Amante & Jacob Dice & Eugene Wahl, 2022. "Housing market impairment from future sea-level rise inundation," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 637-656, December.
    19. Amber Wright & Mark Schwartz & Robert Hijmans & H. Bradley Shaffer, 2016. "Advances in climate models from CMIP3 to CMIP5 do not change predictions of future habitat suitability for California reptiles and amphibians," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 579-591, February.
    20. Hong Li & Chong-Yu Xu & Stein Beldring & Lena Merete Tallaksen & Sharad K. Jain, 2016. "Water Resources Under Climate Change in Himalayan Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 843-859, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:21:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10668-017-0052-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.