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Performance evaluation of regional climate model simulations at different spatial and temporal scales over the complex orography area of the Alpine region

Author

Listed:
  • Alfredo Reder

    (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)

  • Mario Raffa

    (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)

  • Myriam Montesarchio

    (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
    CIRA (Italian Aerospace Research Center))

  • Paola Mercogliano

    (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
    CIRA (Italian Aerospace Research Center))

Abstract

This work provides a significant contribution on the open debate in the climate community to establish the added value of very high-resolution configurations, characterized by a horizontal resolution below 4 km with respect to current state-of-the-art climate simulations (10–15 km). Specifically, it aims at assessing quantitative gains and losses in the performance of climate models caused by an enhancement in temporal and spatial resolution by evaluating the capability of different climate simulations in reproducing daily and sub-daily present precipitation dynamics over a complex orographic context such as the Alpine region. In this perspective, the results of three experiments (EURO-CORDEX ensemble mean, CCLM 8 and CCLM 2.2) at different spatial (~ 12, 8 and 2.2 km) and temporal (daily, 6 h and 3 h) scales are compared to gridded and point-scale observational datasets. Precipitation data are analyzed by mean of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices indicators, as well as with statistical models able to evaluate the precipitation distribution and the extreme values for different durations of precipitation events. To objectively assess gains and losses in adopting high-resolution RCMs, data are elaborated assuming the distribution added value as metric, particularly focusing on the role of orography. The work returns, at daily scale, a gain in climate model performances moving from lower to higher horizontal resolution. At the same time, investigating the effect of the orography the simulation with the finest grid proves to better capture local precipitation dynamics at higher altitudes in terms of both sub-daily precipitation and extreme events.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfredo Reder & Mario Raffa & Myriam Montesarchio & Paola Mercogliano, 2020. "Performance evaluation of regional climate model simulations at different spatial and temporal scales over the complex orography area of the Alpine region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(1), pages 151-177, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:102:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-03916-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03916-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Reder & M. Iturbide & S. Herrera & G. Rianna & P. Mercogliano & J. M. Gutiérrez, 2018. "Assessing variations of extreme indices inducing weather-hazards on critical infrastructures over Europe—the INTACT framework," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 123-138, May.
    2. Elizabeth J. Kendon & Nigel M. Roberts & Hayley J. Fowler & Malcolm J. Roberts & Steven C. Chan & Catherine A. Senior, 2014. "Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(7), pages 570-576, July.
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    1. Mario Raffa & Alfredo Reder & Gian Franco Marras & Marco Mancini & Gabriella Scipione & Monia Santini & Paola Mercogliano, 2021. "VHR-REA_IT Dataset: Very High Resolution Dynamical Downscaling of ERA5 Reanalysis over Italy by COSMO-CLM," Data, MDPI, vol. 6(8), pages 1-15, August.
    2. Tassadit Kourat & Dalila Smadhi & Brahim Mouhouche & Nerdjes Gourari & M. G. Mostofa Amin & Christopher Robin Bryant, 2021. "Assessment of future climate change impact on rainfed wheat yield in the semi-arid Eastern High Plain of Algeria using a crop model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2175-2203, July.

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