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Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model

Author

Listed:
  • Elizabeth J. Kendon

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Nigel M. Roberts

    (MetOffice@Reading)

  • Hayley J. Fowler

    (School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle, NE1 7RU)

  • Malcolm J. Roberts

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Steven C. Chan

    (School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle, NE1 7RU)

  • Catherine A. Senior

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

Abstract

Changes in precipitation extremes are occurring under climate change, but how they will manifest on sub-daily timescales is uncertain. This study used a high-resolution model, typically used for weather forecasting, to simulate hourly rainfall in the UK in the year 2100. The results confirmed previous findings of winter rainfall intensification and found that short-duration rainfall intensified in summer, increasing the risk of flash flooding.

Suggested Citation

  • Elizabeth J. Kendon & Nigel M. Roberts & Hayley J. Fowler & Malcolm J. Roberts & Steven C. Chan & Catherine A. Senior, 2014. "Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(7), pages 570-576, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:4:y:2014:i:7:d:10.1038_nclimate2258
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2258
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Russell & Paul Sayers, 2022. "Assessing Future Flood Risk and Developing Integrated Flood Risk Management Strategies: A Case Study from the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-14, October.
    2. Fiona Johnson & Christopher J. White & Albert Dijk & Marie Ekstrom & Jason P. Evans & Dörte Jakob & Anthony S. Kiem & Michael Leonard & Alexandra Rouillard & Seth Westra, 2016. "Natural hazards in Australia: floods," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 21-35, November.
    3. Ivo Offenthaler & Astrid Felderer & Herbert Formayer & Natalie Glas & David Leidinger & Philip Leopold & Anna Schmidt & Manfred J. Lexer, 2020. "Threshold or Limit? Precipitation Dependency of Austrian Landslides, an Ongoing Challenge for Hazard Mapping under Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Junying Fang & Yu Du, 2022. "A global survey of diurnal offshore propagation of rainfall," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Kornelia Przestrzelska & Katarzyna Wartalska & Weronika Rosińska & Jakub Jurasz & Bartosz Kaźmierczak, 2024. "Climate Resilient Cities: A Review of Blue-Green Solutions Worldwide," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(15), pages 5885-5910, December.
    6. Alfredo Reder & Mario Raffa & Myriam Montesarchio & Paola Mercogliano, 2020. "Performance evaluation of regional climate model simulations at different spatial and temporal scales over the complex orography area of the Alpine region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(1), pages 151-177, May.
    7. A. Kay & A. Rudd & H. Davies & E. Kendon & R. Jones, 2015. "Use of very high resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling: baseline performance and future flood changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 193-208, November.
    8. R. K. Mall & Nidhi Singh & K. K. Singh & Geetika Sonkar & Akhilesh Gupta, 2018. "Evaluating the performance of RegCM4.0 climate model for climate change impact assessment on wheat and rice crop in diverse agro-climatic zones of Uttar Pradesh, India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 503-515, August.
    9. Alison Kay, 2022. "Differences in hydrological impacts using regional climate model and nested convection-permitting model data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-19, July.
    10. Julia Reis & Julie Shortridge, 2022. "Robust decision outcomes with induced correlations in climatic and economic parameters," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-23, January.
    11. Conrad Wasko & Rory Nathan, 2019. "The local dependency of precipitation on historical changes in temperature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 105-120, September.
    12. M. Mokrech & A. Kebede & R. Nicholls & F. Wimmer & L. Feyen, 2015. "An integrated approach for assessing flood impacts due to future climate and socio-economic conditions and the scope of adaptation in Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 245-260, February.
    13. Christoph Schär & Nikolina Ban & Erich M. Fischer & Jan Rajczak & Jürg Schmidli & Christoph Frei & Filippo Giorgi & Thomas R. Karl & Elizabeth J. Kendon & Albert M. G. Klein Tank & Paul A. O’Gorman & , 2016. "Percentile indices for assessing changes in heavy precipitation events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 201-216, July.
    14. Trisha L. Moore & John S. Gulliver & Latham Stack & Michael H. Simpson, 2016. "Stormwater management and climate change: vulnerability and capacity for adaptation in urban and suburban contexts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 491-504, October.
    15. Ihtisham A. Malik & Robert W. Faff & Kam F. Chan, 2020. "Market response of US equities to domestic natural disasters: industry‐based evidence," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 3875-3904, December.
    16. Mathew E. Hauer & Alexis R. Santos-Lozada, 2021. "Inaction on Climate Change Projected to Reduce European Life Expectancy," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(3), pages 629-638, June.
    17. Geert Jan Oldenborgh & Karin Wiel & Sarah Kew & Sjoukje Philip & Friederike Otto & Robert Vautard & Andrew King & Fraser Lott & Julie Arrighi & Roop Singh & Maarten Aalst, 2021. "Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-27, May.
    18. S. R. Johnson & S. E. Heaps & K. J. Wilson & D. J. Wilkinson, 2023. "A Bayesian spatio‐temporal model for short‐term forecasting of precipitation fields," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), December.
    19. L. J. Bracken & E. A. Oughton & A. Donaldson & B. Cook & J. Forrester & C. Spray & S. Cinderby & D. Passmore & N. Bissett, 2016. "Flood risk management, an approach to managing cross-border hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(2), pages 217-240, June.

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