A simplified rare earth element mining project cost estimator - a new tool for evaluating future mine supply

Rare earth elements (REE) are essential for the future of electric vehicles and renewable energy production, but currently there is limited REE production outside of China. Forecasting global future supplies of REE often relies on the valuation of advanced mining projects to assess if projects will initiate production. Classical valuation methods, such as net present value (NPV), require knowledge of initial capital and operating expenditures to assess the economic feasibility of a given project. Typical industry unit expenditure projections are highly precise but are extremely project dependent and require detailed knowledge of a site that is far beyond the level that a domestic and/or global supply-demand model can obtain. To model future REE supplies we developed a new globally representative, simplified, mining project cost model that can be used to approximate the capital and operating expenditures of greenfield REE mining projects. Results from this model allow users to estimate expenses of open-pit and underground mines with mineral processing operations that range from solely beneficiation to individual REE separation. Using our new model and an estimate of NPV, we evaluate several REE mining projects and assess the economic variables impacting the likelihood for these projects to advance to the production stage. Of 12 assessed projects located outside of China, in the early to advanced development stages, nine had positive NPV at 2011 peak REE prices, but none had positive NPV when prices reached bottom in 2016. Two projects yielded positive NPV’s using 2022 and projected 2028 prices. The viability of these projects given the impact of the volatility in REE prices explains the high uncertainty in the future supply for these mineral commodities.