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Expected improvement in efficient global optimization through bootstrapped kriging

Author

Listed:
  • Jack Kleijnen
  • Wim Beers
  • Inneke Nieuwenhuyse

Abstract

This article uses a sequentialized experimental design to select simulation input combinations for global optimization, based on Kriging (also called Gaussian process or spatial correlation modeling); this Kriging is used to analyze the input/output data of the simulation model (computer code). This design and analysis adapt the classic “expected improvement” (EI) in “efficient global optimization” (EGO) through the introduction of an improved estimator of the Kriging predictor variance; this estimator uses parametric bootstrapping. Classic EI and bootstrapped EI are compared through various test functions, including the six-hump camel-back and several Hartmann functions. These empirical results demonstrate that in some applications bootstrapped EI finds the global optimum faster than classic EI does; in general, however, the classic EI may be considered to be a robust global optimizer. Copyright The Author(s) 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Jack Kleijnen & Wim Beers & Inneke Nieuwenhuyse, 2012. "Expected improvement in efficient global optimization through bootstrapped kriging," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 59-73, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jglopt:v:54:y:2012:i:1:p:59-73
    DOI: 10.1007/s10898-011-9741-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. D den Hertog & J P C Kleijnen & A Y D Siem, 2006. "The correct Kriging variance estimated by bootstrapping," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(4), pages 400-409, April.
    2. Markus Abt, 1999. "Estimating the Prediction Mean Squared Error in Gaussian Stochastic Processes with Exponential Correlation Structure," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 26(4), pages 563-578, December.
    3. Bruce Ankenman & Barry L. Nelson & Jeremy Staum, 2010. "Stochastic Kriging for Simulation Metamodeling," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 371-382, April.
    4. Enrique del Castillo & Eduardo Santiago, 2010. "A matrix-T approach to the sequential design of optimization experiments," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 54-68.
    5. Peter Frazier & Warren Powell & Savas Dayanik, 2009. "The Knowledge-Gradient Policy for Correlated Normal Beliefs," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 21(4), pages 599-613, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Songhao Wang & Szu Hui Ng & William Benjamin Haskell, 2022. "A Multilevel Simulation Optimization Approach for Quantile Functions," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 569-585, January.
    2. Kleijnen, Jack P.C., 2013. "Simulation-Optimization via Kriging and Bootstrapping : A Survey (Revision of CentER DP 2011-064)," Other publications TiSEM 6ac4e049-ad86-447f-aeec-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Xiaodong Song & Mingyang Li & Zhitao Li & Fang Liu, 2021. "Global Optimization Algorithm Based on Kriging Using Multi-Point Infill Sampling Criterion and Its Application in Transportation System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-17, September.
    4. Morales-Enciso, Sergio & Branke, Juergen, 2015. "Tracking global optima in dynamic environments with efficient global optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(3), pages 744-755.
    5. Antanas Žilinskas & James Calvin, 2019. "Bi-objective decision making in global optimization based on statistical models," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 74(4), pages 599-609, August.
    6. Dawei Zhan & Huanlai Xing, 2020. "Expected improvement for expensive optimization: a review," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 78(3), pages 507-544, November.
    7. Jalali, Hamed & Van Nieuwenhuyse, Inneke & Picheny, Victor, 2017. "Comparison of Kriging-based algorithms for simulation optimization with heterogeneous noise," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(1), pages 279-301.
    8. Shande Li & Jian Wen & Jun Wang & Weiqi Liu & Shuai Yuan, 2022. "A High-Precision Surrogate Modeling Method Based on Parallel Multipoint Expected Improvement Point Infill Criteria for Complex Simulation Problems," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(17), pages 1-15, August.
    9. Kleijnen, Jack P.C. & Mehdad, E., 2013. "Conditional simulation for efficient global optimization," Other publications TiSEM 52e4860d-9887-4a63-b19a-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Mehdad, E. & Kleijnen, Jack P.C., 2014. "Classic Kriging versus Kriging with Bootstrapping or Conditional Simulation : Classic Kriging's Robust Confidence Intervals and Optimization (Revised version of CentER DP 2013-038)," Other publications TiSEM 4915047b-afe4-4fc7-8a1c-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Qun Meng & Songhao Wang & Szu Hui Ng, 2022. "Combined Global and Local Search for Optimization with Gaussian Process Models," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 622-637, January.
    12. Pedrielli, Giulia & Wang, Songhao & Ng, Szu Hui, 2020. "An extended Two-Stage Sequential Optimization approach: Properties and performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 929-945.
    13. Satyajith Amaran & Nikolaos V. Sahinidis & Bikram Sharda & Scott J. Bury, 2016. "Simulation optimization: a review of algorithms and applications," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 240(1), pages 351-380, May.

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