Market efficiency, discount-rate changes, and stock returns: A long-term perspective
This paper examines the market efficiency issue by analyzing stock returns surrounding Fed announcements of discount-rate changes. Based on an analysis ofex post returns over a 58-year period, the results provide evidence of long-term market efficiency. Consistent with recent literature, the findings also reveal some predictability in return patterns where an active trading strategy based on directional reversals in the pattern of discount rate changes outperforms a passive buy-and-hold approach. The results indicate that the proposed active trading produces substantially higher risk-adjusted returns than the buy-and-hold strategy. Copyright Springer 1999
Volume (Year): 23 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
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- R. W. Hafer, 1986. "The response of stock prices to changes in weekly money and the discount rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 5-14.
- Waud, Roger N, 1970. "Public Interpretation of Federal Reserve Discount Rate Changes: Evidence on the 'Announcement Effect'," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 231-250, March.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
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