Making waves or ripples? The influence of the European Green Deal on the revised IMO GHG strategy

In July 2023, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted its 2023 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Strategy, establishing a pathway for decarbonizing the shipping sector “by or around, i.e. close to, 2050.” The strategy followed several unilateral measures undertaken by the European Union (EU), as part of its European Green Deal’s Fit for 55 Package, which overlapped with the IMO’s climate jurisdiction. Considering the EU’s climate ambition and record of uploading environmental legislation into the IMO, it is very likely that this new legislation influenced the negotiations of the strategy. Yet, competing academic perspectives call into question the extent of EU influence. This article therefore answers the research question How did the EU’s inclusion of shipping related provisions within Fit for 55 influence the negotiations on a revised IMO GHG reduction strategy? Data is based on participant observation at the IMO, semi-structured interviews with EU and non-EU negotiators, and official documents. It finds that the introduction of shipping policies within the Fit for 55 Package triggered a causal mechanism that ultimately led to the EU moderately influencing the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy negotiations within a logic of interplay by commitment. The legislation facilitated the EU working as a bloc within the IMO on climate issues for the first time, giving it the clout of 27 states which could therefore push for its objectives in the negotiations. However, the actual extent of its influence on the substance of the strategy was overshadowed by broader political forces and other actors in the IMO.