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Countries start to explain how their climate contributions are fair: more rigour needed

Author

Listed:
  • Harald Winkler

    (Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town)

  • Niklas Höhne

    (NewClimate Institute
    Wageningen University)

  • Guy Cunliffe

    (Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town)

  • Takeshi Kuramochi

    (NewClimate Institute)

  • Amanda April

    (Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town)

  • Maria Jose Villafranca Casas

    (NewClimate Institute)

Abstract

In the lead-up to the Paris Agreement, every country was invited to submit an intended nationally determined contribution (INDC), and indicate how it is fair. We analyse how countries have explained the equity of mitigation and adaptation in 163 INDCs, providing a bottom-up analysis of equity to complement a literature that has focused on top-down allocations. While no single indicator of equity was used by all INDCs, a menu of quantified indicators or tiered approaches could provide bounded flexibility across different national circumstances. The most common equity indicator used in mitigation INDCs is the country’s ‘small share’ of global emissions, followed by per capita emissions. The emissions of individual ‘small share’ INDCs add up to 24% of annual global emissions when using a consistent data set. Per capita emissions are used across a range of countries with low (0.5) to high (25 t CO2–eq per capita) values for that indicator. Adaptation is included in 89% of INDCs, of which more than half quantify impacts in some manner, and two-thirds use vulnerability as an equity argument. Broadly, we find that most claims to equity are either unsubstantiated or drawn from analysis by in-country experts. Only two INDCs refer to independent evidence, and none consider the consequences of their approach when applied to all countries. Given that the aggregate effect of INDCs will not be sufficient to keep global temperature increase well below 2 °C, and even less to keep temperature below a 1.5 °C rise, the INDCs have distributional implications. More rigorous information is needed to assess relative fair shares, which could be provided officially in future nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Absent improved information, it is likely that researchers and civil society will continue to assess informally what could be considered fair. A hybrid approach to equity—combining bottom-up assessment and top-down allocation—would be consistent with the hybrid architecture of the Paris Agreement, which comprises bottom-up elements such as NDCs and top-down elements such as global goals. Improved information on equity in NDCs will be an important input to the global stocktake ‘in the light of equity’.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Winkler & Niklas Höhne & Guy Cunliffe & Takeshi Kuramochi & Amanda April & Maria Jose Villafranca Casas, 2018. "Countries start to explain how their climate contributions are fair: more rigour needed," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 99-115, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:ieaple:v:18:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10784-017-9381-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10784-017-9381-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olga Alcaraz & Bàrbara Sureda & Albert Turon & Cindy Ramírez & Marta Gebellí, 2021. "Equitable mitigation to achieve the 1.5 °C goal in the Mediterranean Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-20, April.
    2. Seyed Alireza Modirzadeh & Mohsen Nasseri & Mohammad Sadegh Ahadi & Farzam Pourasghar Sangachin, 2021. "Assessing GHG mitigation goals of INDCs (NDCs) considering socio-economic and environmental indicators of the parties," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 1-33, December.
    3. Philipp Pattberg & Cille Kaiser & Oscar Widerberg & Johannes Stripple, 2022. "20 Years of global climate change governance research: taking stock and moving forward," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 295-315, June.
    4. Ceecee Holz & Guy Cunliffe & Kennedy Mbeva & Pieter W. Pauw & Harald Winkler, 2023. "Tempering and enabling ambition: how equity is considered in domestic processes preparing NDCs," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 271-292, September.
    5. Martin Kesternich & Andreas Löschel & Andreas Ziegler, 2021. "Negotiating weights for burden sharing rules in international climate negotiations: an empirical analysis," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 23(2), pages 309-331, April.
    6. Joyeeta Gupta & Aarti Gupta & Courtney Vegelin, 2022. "Equity, justice and the SDGs: lessons learnt from two decades of INEA scholarship," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 393-409, June.
    7. Barry McMullin & Paul Price & Michael B. Jones & Alwynne H. McGeever, 2020. "Assessing negative carbon dioxide emissions from the perspective of a national “fair share” of the remaining global carbon budget," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 579-602, April.
    8. Minna Havukainen & Mirja Mikkilä & Helena Kahiluoto, 2022. "Climate Policy Reform in Nepal through the Lenses of the Institutional Analysis and Development Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-21, June.
    9. Nicky R. M. Pouw & Hans-Peter Weikard & Richard B. Howarth, 2022. "Economic analysis of international environmental agreements: lessons learnt 2000–2020," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 279-294, June.
    10. Manish Kumar Shrivastava & Saradindu Bhaduri, 2019. "Market-based mechanism and ‘climate justice’: reframing the debate for a way forward," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 497-513, October.
    11. Pieter Pauw & Kennedy Mbeva & Harro Asselt, 2019. "Subtle differentiation of countries’ responsibilities under the Paris Agreement," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, December.

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