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Inländische Wanderungen in Deutschland – wer gewinnt und wer verliert?
[Domestic migration in Germany – who are the winners and losers?]

Author

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  • Roland Busch

    (Bergische Universitat Wuppertal)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Die derzeitige Debatte um die Zukunftsfähigkeit der Städte ist sehr stark von der Zuwanderung aus dem Ausland dominiert. Durch diese werden inländische Wanderungstrends derzeit jedoch „überdeckt“, was zu Fehlinterpretationen bei der Betrachtung der kommunalen Wanderungssaldi führen kann. In der folgenden Untersuchung wird das aktuelle Phänomen der Auslandszuwanderung deshalb ausgeblendet und der Fokus auf die inländischen Wanderungstrends gerichtet. Bei isolierter Betrachtung der inländischen Wanderungsbewegungen zeigt sich, dass sich die Wanderungssaldi der Großstädte in den letzten Jahren negativ entwickelt haben. Allerdings gibt es große regionale Unterschiede: Während viele prosperierende Großstädte zwischen 2008 und 2014 einen starken Rückgang des inländischen Wanderungssaldos zu verzeichnen hatten und einige in den letzten Jahren sogar Einwohner an die Kreise verloren, sind in der Region Mitteldeutschland und in Teilbereichen Nordrhein-Westfalens davon abweichende Entwicklungen festzustellen. Dies deutet auf ökonomisch bedingte Verdrängungsprozesse in Großstädten mit stark angespanntem Wohnungsmarkt hin. Anscheinend wird es insbesondere für Haushalte in der Eigentumsbildungs- und Familiengründungsphase in Großstädten mit stark steigenden Miet- und Kaufpreisen immer schwieriger, sich die Wohnwünsche zu erfüllen und der Umzug in das preiswertere Umland gewinnt als Alternative an Bedeutung. Dass Großstädte aber immer noch eine hohe Attraktivität als Wohnstandorte haben, zeigen die weiterhin starken inländischen Wanderungsgewinne derjenigen Großstädte, die (derzeit noch) über relativ entspannte Wohnungsmärkte verfügen. Es ist davon auszugehen, dass sich bei einem Rückgang der Auslandszuwanderung der Druck auf die großstädtischen Immobilienmärkte etwas reduziert, was negative Auswirkungen vor allem auf die aktuellen Gewinner der Verdrängungsprozesse – die suburbanen und ländlichen Kommunen im Umfeld der Großstädte – haben könnte.

Suggested Citation

  • Roland Busch, 2016. "Inländische Wanderungen in Deutschland – wer gewinnt und wer verliert? [Domestic migration in Germany – who are the winners and losers?]," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 2(2), pages 81-101, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:gjorer:v:2:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1365_s41056-016-0012-3
    DOI: 10.1365/s41056-016-0012-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joachim Ragnitz, 2013. "Wanderungen von und nach Ostdeutschland," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(06), pages 44-48, December.
    2. Deschermeier, Philipp & Müller, Eva M., 2012. "Analyse der Wohn‐ und Arbeitsortverteilung von Hochqualifizierten in der Metropolregion Rhein‐Neckar," Working Papers 12-09, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    3. William Alonso, 1960. "A Theory Of The Urban Land Market," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 149-157, January.
    4. Karl Brenke & Nina Neubecker, 2013. "Struktur der Zuwanderungen verändert sich deutlich," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(49), pages 3-21.
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