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Small Effects of Selective Migration and Selective Survival in Retrospective Studies of Fertility

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  • Gunnar Andersson

    (Stockholm University Demography Unit)

  • Boris Sobolev

    (University of British Columbia)

Abstract

In this study, we assess the accuracy of fertility estimates that stem from the retrospective information that can be derived from an existing cross-sectional population. Swedish population registers contain information on the childbearing of all people ever registered as living in Sweden, and thus allow us to avoid problems of selectivity by the virtue of survival or nonemigration when estimating the fertility measures for previous calendar periods. We calculate two types of fertility rates for each year in 1961–1999: (i) rates that are based on the population that was living in Sweden at the end of 1999, and (ii) rates that also include information on people who had died or emigrated before the turn of the twentieth century. We find that the omission of information on individuals who had emigrated or died, as the situation would be in any demographic survey, most often have negligible effects on fertility measures. However, first-birth rates of immigrants gradually become more biased as we move back in time from 1999 so that they increasingly tend to over-estimate the true fertility of that population.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunnar Andersson & Boris Sobolev, 2013. "Small Effects of Selective Migration and Selective Survival in Retrospective Studies of Fertility," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 345-354, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:29:y:2013:i:3:d:10.1007_s10680-013-9293-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-013-9293-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Magali Mazuy & Laurent Toulemon, 2004. "Comment prendre en compte l'âge à l'arrivée et la durée de séjour en France dans la mesure de la fécondité des immigrants," Working Papers 120, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED).
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    3. Gunnar Andersson & Kirk Scott, 2007. "Childbearing dynamics of couples in a universalistic welfare state: the role of labor-market status, country of origin, and gender," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2007-016, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Emilio Parrado, 2011. "How High is Hispanic/Mexican Fertility in the United States? Immigration and Tempo Considerations," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 1059-1080, August.
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    6. Gunnar Andersson & Kirk Scott, 2007. "Childbearing dynamics of couples in a universalistic welfare state," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(30), pages 897-938.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Maxim Kan, 2023. "Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-39, December.
    4. Livia Ortensi, 2015. "Engendering the fertility-migration nexus: The role of women's migratory patterns in the analysis of fertility after migration," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(53), pages 1435-1468.

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