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Diffusion Effects in the European Fertility Transition: Historical Evidence from Within a Belgian Town (1846–1910)

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  • Jan van Bavel

    (KU Leuven)

Abstract

This article investigates empirically diffusion effects on married couples' fertility behaviour during the historical European demographic transition. To this end, a blended logistic model of parity-dependent stopping behaviour is developed, including indicators for both natural and structural determinants and diffusion effects. The model is applied to the birth intervals of three 19th century generations of urban working class couples living in the Belgian town of Leuven. The results indicate that occupational status cannot explain the adoption of stopping behaviour. The evidence suggests that diffusion mechanisms were at work on a neighbourhood level: the proportion of Francophone couples living in the Leuven streets had a significant positive impact on the probability that the Flemish couples were applying stopping behaviour. Also, working class couples who were living in a town quarter that was hosting many upper class people were significantly more likely to stop.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan van Bavel, 2004. "Diffusion Effects in the European Fertility Transition: Historical Evidence from Within a Belgian Town (1846–1910)," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 63-85, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:20:y:2004:i:1:d:10.1023_b:eujp.0000014572.66520.0d
    DOI: 10.1023/B:EUJP.0000014572.66520.0d
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    1. Kohler, Hans-Peter, 2001. "Fertility and Social Interaction: An Economic Perspective," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199244591.
    2. James Wood & Darryl Holman & Anatoli Yashin & Raymond Peterson & Maxine Weinstein & Ming-Cheng Chang, 1994. "A Multistate model of fecundability and sterility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(3), pages 403-426, August.
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    4. R. Lesthaeghe & K. Neels, 2002. "From the First to the Second Demographic Transition: An Interpretation of the Spatial Continuity of Demographic Innovation in France, Belgium and Switzerland," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 325-360, December.
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    4. Jona Schellekens & Frans Poppel, 2012. "Marital Fertility Decline in the Netherlands: Child Mortality, Real Wages, and Unemployment, 1860–1939," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 965-988, August.

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