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Valuing the Economic Impact of River Floods and Early Flood Warning for Households in Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Stephanie Zayed

    (RTI International)

  • Laura T. R. Morrison

    (RTI International)

  • Daniel Lapidus

    (RTI International)

  • Michael Gallaher

    (RTI International)

  • Clark Letterman

    (RTI International)

  • Justine L. E. Allpress

    (RTI International)

  • Stirling Cummings

    (RTI International)

Abstract

Flood early warning systems have the potential to mitigate damages for vulnerable populations that experience river flooding in Bangladesh. We conducted a 2,247 household survey and series of focus groups to estimate the economic damages from 2016 river floods and the hypothetical savings of a 3- and 8-day warning for households living in the Jamuna River floodplain. Households were identified using geo-sampling, a novel geographic information system (GIS)–based sampling methodology that facilitates probability-based sampling where data are insufficient. Total damages for the entire flood plain in 2016 totaled to $1.3 billion, or 25% of household income and assets. Respondents estimated avoided damages from a hypothetical 3- and 8-day warning to be $73m and $85m, respectively, reflecting diminishing returns to additional days of early warning. With the hypothetical early warning, respondents derived the greatest savings from protecting their land, household/dwelling, and livestock. The greatest savings to households receiving a hypothetical additional 5 days of warning (from a 3- to an 8-day warning) would be realized in protecting agricultural production. Selling assets/livestock and employing protective sandbags were the preventative actions with the highest benefit–cost ratios that households said they would undertake. Importantly, only 11% of households received any early warning at all during the 2016 flood season, suggesting that the greatest benefits moving forward would be achieved by communicating existing or improved warnings more effectively to households in the floodplain.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephanie Zayed & Laura T. R. Morrison & Daniel Lapidus & Michael Gallaher & Clark Letterman & Justine L. E. Allpress & Stirling Cummings, 2025. "Valuing the Economic Impact of River Floods and Early Flood Warning for Households in Bangladesh," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 29-51, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ediscc:v:9:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s41885-024-00156-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s41885-024-00156-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roy Brouwer & Sonia Akter & Luke Brander & Enamul Haque, 2007. "Socioeconomic Vulnerability and Adaptation to Environmental Risk: A Case Study of Climate Change and Flooding in Bangladesh," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(2), pages 313-326, April.
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    3. Nayeem Sultana & Md. Rayhan, 2012. "Coping strategies with floods in Bangladesh: an empirical study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1209-1218, November.
    4. Pini Wijayanti & Xueqin Zhu & Petra Hellegers & Yus Budiyono & Ekko C. van Ierland, 2017. "Estimation of river flood damages in Jakarta, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(3), pages 1059-1079, April.
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