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Cryptocurrency market structure: connecting emotions and economics

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  • Tomaso Aste

    (UCL
    UCL
    London School of Economics)

Abstract

I study the dependency and causality structure of the cryptocurrency market investigating collective movements of both prices and social sentiment related to almost two thousand cryptocurrencies traded during the first six months of 2018. This is the first study of the whole cryptocurrency market structure. It introduces several rigorous innovative methodologies applicable to this and to several other complex systems where a large number of variables interact in a non-linear way, which is a distinctive feature of the digital economy. The analysis of the dependency structure reveals that prices are significantly correlated with sentiment. The major, most capitalised cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, have a central role in the price correlation network but only a marginal role in the sentiment network and in the network describing the interactions between the two. The study of the causality structure reveals a causality network that is consistently related with the correlation structures and shows that both prices cause sentiment and sentiment cause prices across currencies with the latter being stronger in size but smaller in number of significative interactions. Overall this study uncovers a complex and rich structure of interrelations where prices and sentiment influence each other both instantaneously and with lead–lag causal relations. A major finding is that minor currencies, with small capitalisation, play a crucial role in shaping the overall dependency and causality structure. Despite the high level of noise and the short time-series I verified that these networks are significant with all links statistically validated and with a structural organisation consistently reproduced across all networks.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomaso Aste, 2019. "Cryptocurrency market structure: connecting emotions and economics," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 5-21, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:digfin:v:1:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s42521-019-00008-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s42521-019-00008-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tatiana Morozova & Ravil Akhmadeev & Liubov Lehoux & Alexei Valerievich Yumashev & Galina Vladimirovna Meshkova & Marina Lukiyanova, 2020. "Crypto asset assessment models in financial reporting content typologies," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 7(3), pages 2196-2212, March.
    2. Vidal-Tomás, David, 2022. "The new crypto niche: NFTs, play-to-earn, and metaverse tokens," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    3. Iqbal, Najaf & Fareed, Zeeshan & Wan, Guangcai & Shahzad, Farrukh, 2021. "Asymmetric nexus between COVID-19 outbreak in the world and cryptocurrency market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Cameron Cornell & Lewis Mitchell & Matthew Roughan, 2023. "Vector Autoregression in Cryptocurrency Markets: Unraveling Complex Causal Networks," Papers 2308.15769, arXiv.org.
    5. Nishi Sharma & Shailika Rawat & Arshdeep Kaur, 2022. "Investment in Virtual Digital Assets Vis-A-Vis Equity Stock and Commodity: A Post-Covid Volatility Analysis," Virtual Economics, The London Academy of Science and Business, vol. 5(2), pages 95-113, September.
    6. Jörg Osterrieder & Andrea Barletta, 2019. "Editorial on the Special Issue on Cryptocurrencies," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4, November.
    7. Emilio Barucci & Giancarlo Giuffra Moncayo & Daniele Marazzina, 2022. "Cryptocurrencies and stablecoins: a high-frequency analysis," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 217-239, September.
    8. Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Marcin Wk{a}torek & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z, 2021. "Cryptocurrency Market Consolidation in 2020--2021," Papers 2112.06552, arXiv.org.
    9. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z, 2023. "Cryptocurrencies Are Becoming Part of the World Global Financial Market," Papers 2303.00495, arXiv.org.
    10. Kong, Xiaolin & Ma, Chaoqun & Ren, Yi-Shuai & Narayan, Seema & Nguyen, Thong Trung & Baltas, Konstantinos, 2023. "Changes in the market structure and risk management of Bitcoin and its forked coins," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    11. Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Cerchiello, Paola & Scaramozzino, Roberta, 2022. "Network based evidence of the financial impact of Covid-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Saef, Danial & Nagy, Odett & Sizov, Sergej & Härdle, Wolfgang, 2021. "Understanding jumps in high frequency digital asset markets," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2021-019, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    13. Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Pawe{l} O'swik{e}cimka & Tomasz Stanisz & Marcin Wk{a}torek, 2020. "Complexity in economic and social systems: cryptocurrency market at around COVID-19," Papers 2009.10030, arXiv.org.
    14. David Vidal-Tomás, 2023. "Blockchain, sport and fan tokens," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(1), pages 24-38, April.
    15. Ştefan Cristian Gherghina & Liliana Nicoleta Simionescu, 2023. "Exploring the asymmetric effect of COVID-19 pandemic news on the cryptocurrency market: evidence from nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach and frequency domain causality," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-58, December.
    16. Chika Anastesia Anisiuba & Obiamaka P. Egbo & Felix C. Alio & Chuka Ifediora & Ebele C. Igwemeka & C. O. Odidi & Hillary Chijindu Ezeaku, 2021. "Analysis of Cryptocurrency Dynamics in the Emerging Market Economies: Does Reinforcement or Substitution Effect Prevail?," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(1), pages 21582440211, March.
    17. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Ludovico Minati & Pawe{l} O'swik{e}cimka & Marek Stanuszek, 2020. "Multiscale characteristics of the emerging global cryptocurrency market," Papers 2010.15403, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    18. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Dionisio, Andreia & Almeida, Dora & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2022. "Nonlinear nexus between cryptocurrency returns and COVID-19 news sentiment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    19. Chen, Xia & Miraz, Mahadi Hasan & Gazi, Md. Abu Issa & Rahaman, Md. Atikur & Habib, Md. Mamun & Hossain, Abu Ishaque, 2022. "Factors affecting cryptocurrency adoption in digital business transactions: The mediating role of customer satisfaction," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    20. Constandina Koki & Stefanos Leonardos & Georgios Piliouras, 2019. "A Peek into the Unobservable: Hidden States and Bayesian Inference for the Bitcoin and Ether Price Series," Papers 1909.10957, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    21. Pawan Kumar Singh & Alok Kumar Pandey & S. C. Bose, 2023. "A new grey system approach to forecast closing price of Bitcoin, Bionic, Cardano, Dogecoin, Ethereum, XRP Cryptocurrencies," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2429-2446, June.
    22. Agosto, Arianna & Cerchiello, Paola & Pagnottoni, Paolo, 2022. "Sentiment, Google queries and explosivity in the cryptocurrency market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 605(C).
    23. Dong, Zibing & Li, Yanshuang & Zhuang, Xintian & Wang, Jian, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 on global stock sectors: Evidence from time-varying connectedness and asymmetric nexus analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

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