IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/decfin/v46y2023i1d10.1007_s10203-023-00390-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelplasticity and abductive decision making

Author

Listed:
  • Subhadeep Mukhopadhyay

    (United Analytics and Computational Intelligence, Inc.)

Abstract

‘All models are wrong but some are useful’ Box (Robustness in statistics, Elsevier, pp 201–236, 1979). But, how to find those useful ones starting from an imperfect model? How to make informed data-driven decisions equipped with an imperfect model? These fundamental questions appear to be pervasive in virtually all empirical fields—including economics, finance, marketing, healthcare, climate change, defense planning, and operations research. This article presents a modern approach (builds on two core ideas: abductive thinking and density-sharpening principle) and practical guidelines to tackle these issues in a systematic manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Subhadeep Mukhopadhyay, 2023. "Modelplasticity and abductive decision making," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 46(1), pages 255-276, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:decfin:v:46:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10203-023-00390-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10203-023-00390-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10203-023-00390-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10203-023-00390-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "Uncertainty within Economic Models," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9028, January.
    2. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Lars Peter Hansen & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. "Making Decisions under Model Misspecification," Papers 2008.01071, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    3. George Box, 2001. "Statistics for discovery," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3-4), pages 285-299.
    4. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 5, pages 145-154, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Bradley Efron, 2014. "Estimation and Accuracy After Model Selection," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(507), pages 991-1007, September.
    6. J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
    7. Subhadeep Mukhopadhyay & Emanuel Parzen, 2020. "Nonparametric universal copula modeling," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 77-94, January.
    8. Deep Mukhopadhyay, 2021. "Abductive Inference and C. S. Peirce: 150 Years Later," Papers 2111.08054, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    9. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2001. "Acknowledging Misspecification in Macroeconomic Theory," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(3), pages 519-535, July.
    10. Subhadeep Mukhopadhyay, 2021. "Density Sharpening: Principles and Applications to Discrete Data Analysis," Papers 2108.07372, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Subhadeep & Mukhopadhyay, 2022. "Modelplasticity and Abductive Decision Making," Papers 2203.03040, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    2. W. A. Brock & A. Xepapadeas, 2015. "Modeling Coupled Climate, Ecosystems, and Economic Systems," Working Papers 2015.66, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Milos Borozan & Loreta Cannito & Barbara Luppi, 2022. "A tale of two ambiguities: A conceptual overview of findings from economics and psychology," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 6(S1), pages 11-21, July.
    4. David Weisbach, 2015. "Introduction: Legal Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(S2), pages 319-335.
    5. Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: Some theory and empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 629-664, February.
    6. Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2017. "Financial frictions and robust monetary policy in the models of New Keynesian framework," BCAM Working Papers 1701, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    7. Tolulope Fadina & Yang Liu & Ruodu Wang, 2021. "A Framework for Measures of Risk under Uncertainty," Papers 2110.10792, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    8. Loïc Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. "Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics: A Review and Proposed Framework for Future Research," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(3), pages 475-501, November.
    9. Michael Barnett & William Brock & Lars Peter Hansen, 2022. "Climate Change Uncertainty Spillover in the Macroeconomy," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 253-320.
    10. Staffa, Ruben Marek, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects from sovereign risk vs. Knightian uncertainty," IWH Discussion Papers 27/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    11. Rondina, Francesca, 2012. "The role of model uncertainty and learning in the US postwar policy response to oil prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1009-1041.
    12. Subhadeep Mukhopadhyay, 2023. "Abductive Inference and C. S. Peirce: 150 Years Later," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(1), pages 123-149, March.
    13. Anderson, Evan W. & Ghysels, Eric & Juergens, Jennifer L., 2009. "The impact of risk and uncertainty on expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 233-263, November.
    14. Nabil I. Al-Najjar, 2015. "A Bayesian Framework for the Precautionary Principle," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(S2), pages 337-365.
    15. Beißner, Patrick & Khan, M. Ali, 2019. "On Hurwicz–Nash equilibria of non-Bayesian games under incomplete information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 470-490.
    16. Nabil Al-Najjar & Jonathan Weinstein, 2015. "A Bayesian model of Knightian uncertainty," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 78(1), pages 1-22, January.
    17. Anastasios Xepapadeas & Catarina Roseta-Palma, 2003. "Instabilities and Robust Control in Fisheries," Working Papers 2003.110, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    18. Epstein, Larry G. & Schneider, Martin, 2003. "Recursive multiple-priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 1-31, November.
    19. So, Leh-chyan, 2013. "Are Real Options “Real”? Isolating Uncertainty from Risk in Real Options Analysis," MPRA Paper 52493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Ronny Mazzocchi, 2013. "Investment-Saving Imbalances with Endogenous Capital Stock," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/14, Department of Economics and Management.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:decfin:v:46:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10203-023-00390-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.