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Two probability theories and a garbage can

Author

Listed:
  • David Mortimore

    (Naval Postgraduate School
    Naval Undersea Warfare Center Division, Keyport)

  • Mustafa Canan

    (Naval Postgraduate School)

  • Raymond R. Buettner

    (Naval Postgraduate School)

Abstract

Since its nascence, computational organization theory has predominantly relied on classical probability theory to model and simulate organizational properties. However, key assumptions of classical probability theory conflict with empirical observations of organizational behaviors and processes, thereby raising the question if an alternate theoretical basis for probabilistic modeling of organizations might improve the relevancy of computational organization research. In the context of the garbage can model of organizational decision-making, this paper provides two examples—order effects and system measurement—to illustrate the inadequacy of classical probability theory and to stimulate discussion on the merits of incorporating quantum probability theory in computational models. This paper recommends that future work explore the sensitivity of computational organization theory models to probability theories, the impacts associated theoretical assumptions might have on modeling and simulating dynamic organizational interdependencies, and the implications to community practices.

Suggested Citation

  • David Mortimore & Mustafa Canan & Raymond R. Buettner, 2024. "Two probability theories and a garbage can," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 148-160, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:comaot:v:30:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s10588-023-09378-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10588-023-09378-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kathleen M. Carley, 1999. "On generating hypotheses using computer simulations," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(2), pages 69-77.
    2. James G. March, 1978. "Bounded Rationality, Ambiguity, and the Engineering of Choice," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 9(2), pages 587-608, Autumn.
    3. Jay R. Galbraith, 1974. "Organization Design: An Information Processing View," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 4(3), pages 28-36, May.
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