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Evaluation of historical and future thermal conditions for almond trees in north-eastern Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • Teresa R. Freitas

    (University of Trás-Os-Montes E Alto Douro, UTAD)

  • João A. Santos

    (University of Trás-Os-Montes E Alto Douro, UTAD)

  • Ana P. Silva

    (University of Trás-Os-Montes E Alto Douro, UTAD)

  • André Fonseca

    (University of Trás-Os-Montes E Alto Douro, UTAD)

  • Helder Fraga

    (University of Trás-Os-Montes E Alto Douro, UTAD)

Abstract

The Trás-os-Montes agrarian region (TM; north-eastern Portugal) is a traditionally growing area of almond trees. However, climate change may significantly alter the current growing conditions and threaten sustainability. Chilling and forcing conditions in TM are assessed herein, also considering different varietal phenological timings. The dynamic model/chill portions (CP) and chilling hour (CH) models are used to assess the chilling phase. For the forcing phase, growing degree hours (GDH) and growing degree days (GDD) models are selected, hinting at differences between simpler (CH and GDD) and more complex models (CP and GDH). Furthermore, the climate change projections for these models are assessed. The models are computed using daily temperatures for baseline (Iberia01, 1971–2015) and two future periods (EURO-CORDEX: medium-term, 2041–2060, and long-term, 2061–2080), following two anthropogenic forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For the future, a five-member ensemble of regional-global climate model chains is used. Projections for CP and CH show decreases, mostly for RCP8.5, whereas projections for GDH and GDD reveal an increase in heat conditions until the beginning of summer. GDH shows that potentially damaging high temperatures during summer, effectively lead to a decrease in heat accumulation for almond trees. CP and GDH, more biologically effective, seem to be more accurate in capturing climate change impacts. For the three varietal groups, the late cultivar may experience a greater reduction of CP and GDH compared to early and mid-season varieties. Nonetheless, the increase in heat forcing should be more detrimental than the decrease in chilling conditions. Although almond production may be compromised in the future, adequate adaptation options are suggested to mitigate future losses of yield/quality and warrant its sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Teresa R. Freitas & João A. Santos & Ana P. Silva & André Fonseca & Helder Fraga, 2023. "Evaluation of historical and future thermal conditions for almond trees in north-eastern Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(7), pages 1-21, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:7:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03569-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03569-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fraga, Helder & Pinto, Joaquim G. & Santos, João A., 2020. "Olive tree irrigation as a climate change adaptation measure in Alentejo, Portugal," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    2. João A. Santos & Ricardo Costa & Helder Fraga, 2017. "Climate change impacts on thermal growing conditions of main fruit species in Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 273-286, January.
    3. Jens Kiesel & Philipp Stanzel & Harald Kling & Nicola Fohrer & Sonja C. Jähnig & Ilias Pechlivanidis, 2021. "Correction to: Streamflow-based evaluation of climate model sub-selection methods," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-2, December.
    4. Helder Fraga & Joaquim G. Pinto & João A. Santos, 2019. "Climate change projections for chilling and heat forcing conditions in European vineyards and olive orchards: a multi-model assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 179-193, January.
    5. Koffi Djaman & Komlan Koudahe & Murali Darapuneni & Suat Irmak, 2021. "Chilling and Heat Accumulation of Fruit and Nut Trees and Flower Bud Vulnerability to Early Spring Low Temperatures in New Mexico: Meteorological Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-23, February.
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    1. Teresa R. Freitas & João A. Santos & Ana P. Silva & Helder Fraga, 2023. "Reviewing the Adverse Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures on Almond Trees ( Prunus dulcis )," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-19, July.

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