IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v162y2020i4d10.1007_s10584-020-02801-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climatic changes and the fate of mountain herbivores

Author

Listed:
  • Sandro Lovari

    (University of Siena
    Maremma Natural History Museum)

  • Sara Franceschi

    (University of Siena)

  • Gianpasquale Chiatante

    (University of Pavia)

  • Lorenzo Fattorini

    (University of Siena)

  • Niccolò Fattorini

    (University of Siena)

  • Francesco Ferretti

    (University of Siena)

Abstract

Mountains are strongly seasonal habitats, which require special adaptations in wildlife species living on them. Population dynamics of mountain ungulates are largely determined by the availability of rich food resources to sustain lactation and weaning during summer. Increases of temperature affect plant phenology and nutritional quality. Cold-adapted plants occurring at lower elevations will shift to higher ones, if available. We predicted what could happen to populations of mountain ungulates based on how climate change could alter the distribution pattern and quality of high-elevation vegetation, using the “clover community-Apennine chamois Rupicapra pyrenaica ornata” system. From 1970 to 2014, increasing spring temperatures (2 °C) in our study area led to an earlier (25 days) onset of green-up in Alpine grasslands between 1700 and 2000 m, but not higher up. For 1970–2070, we have projected trends of juvenile winter survival of chamois, by simulating trajectories of spring temperatures and occurrence of clover, through models depicting four different scenarios. All scenarios have suggested a decline of Apennine chamois in its historical core range, during the next 50 years, from about 28% to near-extinction at about 95%. The negative consequences of climate changes presently occurring at lower elevations will shift to higher ones in the future. Their effects will vary with the species-specific ecological and behavioural flexibility of mountain ungulates, as well as with availability of climate refugia. However, global shifts in distributional ranges and local decreases or extinctions should be expected, calling for farsighted measures of adaptive management of mountain-dwelling herbivores.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandro Lovari & Sara Franceschi & Gianpasquale Chiatante & Lorenzo Fattorini & Niccolò Fattorini & Francesco Ferretti, 2020. "Climatic changes and the fate of mountain herbivores," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2319-2337, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:162:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02801-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02801-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-020-02801-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-020-02801-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tom H.E. Mason & Francesca Brivio & Philip A. Stephens & Marco Apollonio & Stefano Grignolio, 2017. "The behavioral trade-off between thermoregulation and foraging in a heat-sensitive species," Behavioral Ecology, International Society for Behavioral Ecology, vol. 28(3), pages 908-918.
    2. Francesco Ferretti & Marcello Corazza & Ilaria Campana & Venusta Pietrocini & Claudia Brunetti & Davide Scornavacca & Sandro Lovari, 2015. "Competition between wild herbivores: reintroduced red deer and Apennine chamois," Behavioral Ecology, International Society for Behavioral Ecology, vol. 26(2), pages 550-559.
    3. Silvia Ferrari & Francisco Cribari-Neto, 2004. "Beta Regression for Modelling Rates and Proportions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(7), pages 799-815.
    4. Paul R. Elsen & Morgan W. Tingley, 2015. "Global mountain topography and the fate of montane species under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 772-776, August.
    5. Terry L. Root & Jeff T. Price & Kimberly R. Hall & Stephen H. Schneider & Cynthia Rosenzweig & J. Alan Pounds, 2003. "Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 57-60, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matthias Schmid & Florian Wickler & Kelly O Maloney & Richard Mitchell & Nora Fenske & Andreas Mayr, 2013. "Boosted Beta Regression," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(4), pages 1-15, April.
    2. Mayeul Dalleau & Stéphane Ciccione & Jeanne A Mortimer & Julie Garnier & Simon Benhamou & Jérôme Bourjea, 2012. "Nesting Phenology of Marine Turtles: Insights from a Regional Comparative Analysis on Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(10), pages 1-13, October.
    3. Richard Tol, 2011. "Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 827-839, October.
    4. Domenico Piccolo & Rosaria Simone, 2019. "The class of cub models: statistical foundations, inferential issues and empirical evidence," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 28(3), pages 389-435, September.
    5. Wesley R. Brooks & Stephen C. Newbold, 2013. "Ecosystem damages in integrated assessment models of climate change," NCEE Working Paper Series 201302, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Mar 2013.
    6. Jorge I. Figueroa-Zúñiga & Cristian L. Bayes & Víctor Leiva & Shuangzhe Liu, 2022. "Robust beta regression modeling with errors-in-variables: a Bayesian approach and numerical applications," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 919-942, June.
    7. Yayan Hernuryadin & Koji Kotani & Tatsuyoshi Saijo, 2020. "Time Preferences of Food Producers: Does “Cultivate and Grow” Matter?," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 96(1), pages 132-148.
    8. Mhamed Ben Salah & Cédric Chambru & Maleke Fourati, 2022. "The colonial legacy of education: evidence from of Tunisia," ECON - Working Papers 411, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    9. Muhammad Suhail Rizwan & Asifa Obaid & Dawood Ashraf, 2017. "The Impact of Corporate Social Responsibility on Default Risk: Empirical evidence from US Firms," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 9(3), pages 36-70, September.
    10. Ameztegui, Aitor & Coll, Lluís & Messier, Christian, 2015. "Modelling the effect of climate-induced changes in recruitment and juvenile growth on mixed-forest dynamics: The case of montane–subalpine Pyrenean ecotones," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 84-93.
    11. Takeshima, Hiroyuki & Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O., 2015. "Fertilizer subsidies, political influence and local food prices in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Nigeria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-24.
    12. Mustafa Ç. Korkmaz & Emrah Altun & Morad Alizadeh & M. El-Morshedy, 2021. "The Log Exponential-Power Distribution: Properties, Estimations and Quantile Regression Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(21), pages 1-19, October.
    13. Silvia Balia, 2007. "Reporting expected longevity and smoking: evidence from the SHARE," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 07/10, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    14. Maria V. Sokolova, 2016. "Trade Re(Im)Balanced: The Role of Regional Trade Agreements," IHEID Working Papers 06-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    15. Maria V. Sokolova, 2016. "Exchange Rates, International Trade and Growth: Re-Evaluation of Undervaluation," IHEID Working Papers 05-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    16. Baccini, Leonardo & Urpelainen, Johannes, 2012. "Legislative fractionalization and partisan shifts to the left increase the volatility of public energy R&D expenditures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 45571, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Fabina, Nicholas S. & Abbott, Karen C. & Gilman, R.Tucker, 2010. "Sensitivity of plant–pollinator–herbivore communities to changes in phenology," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 453-458.
    18. Grün, Bettina & Kosmidis, Ioannis & Zeileis, Achim, 2012. "Extended Beta Regression in R: Shaken, Stirred, Mixed, and Partitioned," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 48(i11).
    19. Dries P.J. Kuijper & Jakub W. Bubnicki & Marcin Churski & Bjorn Mols & Pim van Hooft, 2015. "Context dependence of risk effects: wolves and tree logs create patches of fear in an old-growth forest," Behavioral Ecology, International Society for Behavioral Ecology, vol. 26(6), pages 1558-1568.
    20. Albert Esteve & Coro Chasco & Antonio López-Gay, 2022. "Modeling Local Variations in Intermarriage," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:162:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02801-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.