IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v162y2020i2d10.1007_s10584-020-02835-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regional climate change projections from NA-CORDEX and their relation to climate sensitivity

Author

Listed:
  • Melissa S. Bukovsky

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Linda O. Mearns

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Abstract

The climate sensitivity of global climate models (GCMs) strongly influences projected climate change due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. Reasonably, the climate sensitivity of a GCM may be expected to affect dynamically downscaled projections. However, there has been little examination of the effect of the climate sensitivity of GCMs on regional climate model (RCM) ensembles. Therefore, we present projections of temperature and precipitation from the ensemble of projections produced as a part of the North American branch of the international Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) in the context of their relationship to the climate sensitivity of their parent GCMs. NA-CORDEX simulations were produced at 50-km and 25-km resolutions with multiple RCMs which downscaled multiple GCMs that spanned nearly the full range of climate sensitivity available in the CMIP5 archive. We show that climate sensitivity is a very important source of spread in the NA-CORDEX ensemble, particularly for temperature. Temperature projections correlate with driving GCM climate sensitivity annually and seasonally across North America not only at a continental scale but also at a local-to-regional scale. Importantly, the spread in temperature projections would be reduced if only low, mid, or high climate sensitivity simulations were considered, or if only the ensemble mean were considered. Precipitation projections correlate with climate sensitivity, but only at a continental scale during the cold season, due to the increasing influence of other processes at finer scales. Additionally, it is shown that the RCMs do alter the projection space sampled by their driving GCMs.

Suggested Citation

  • Melissa S. Bukovsky & Linda O. Mearns, 2020. "Regional climate change projections from NA-CORDEX and their relation to climate sensitivity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 645-665, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:162:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02835-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02835-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-020-02835-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-020-02835-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. L. Mearns & S. Sain & L. Leung & M. Bukovsky & S. McGinnis & S. Biner & D. Caya & R. Arritt & W. Gutowski & E. Takle & M. Snyder & R. Jones & A. Nunes & S. Tucker & D. Herzmann & L. McDaniel & L. Sloa, 2013. "Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 965-975, October.
    2. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    2. Chateau, J. & Dellink, R. & Lanzi, E. & Magne, B., 2012. "Long-term economic growth and environmental pressure: reference scenarios for future global projections," Conference papers 332249, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Gerald Nelson & Jessica Bogard & Keith Lividini & Joanne Arsenault & Malcolm Riley & Timothy B. Sulser & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Brendan Power & David Gustafson & Mario Herrero & Keith Wiebe & Karen Coo, 2018. "Income growth and climate change effects on global nutrition security to mid-century," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(12), pages 773-781, December.
    4. Nicole Costa Resende Ferreira & Jarbas Honorio Miranda, 2021. "Projected changes in corn crop productivity and profitability in Parana, Brazil," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 3236-3250, March.
    5. Jaewon Kwak & Huiseong Noh & Soojun Kim & Vijay P. Singh & Seung Jin Hong & Duckgil Kim & Keonhaeng Lee & Narae Kang & Hung Soo Kim, 2014. "Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    6. Joan Pau Sierra & Ricard Castrillo & Marc Mestres & César Mösso & Piero Lionello & Luigi Marzo, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Wave Energy Resource in the Mediterranean Coast of Morocco," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    7. Marcinkowski, Paweł & Piniewski, Mikołaj, 2024. "Future changes in crop yield over Poland driven by climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen stress," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    8. Henzler, Julia & Weise, Hanna & Enright, Neal J. & Zander, Susanne & Tietjen, Britta, 2018. "A squeeze in the suitable fire interval: Simulating the persistence of fire-killed plants in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem under drier conditions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 389(C), pages 41-49.
    9. Abhiru Aryal & Albira Acharya & Ajay Kalra, 2022. "Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using CMIP6 Climate Projections and HEC-RAS Modeling," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-22, June.
    10. Tamás Hajdu & Gábor Hajdu, 2022. "Temperature, climate change, and human conception rates: evidence from Hungary," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1751-1776, October.
    11. Meraj Sarwary & Senthilnathan Samiappan & Ghulam Dastgir Khan & Masaood Moahid, 2023. "Climate Change and Cereal Crops Productivity in Afghanistan: Evidence Based on Panel Regression Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-13, July.
    12. Jiufeng Wei & Hufang Zhang & Wanqing Zhao & Qing Zhao, 2017. "Niche shifts and the potential distribution of Phenacoccus solenopsis (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) under climate change," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, July.
    13. Kokou Amega & Yendoubé Laré & Ramchandra Bhandari & Yacouba Moumouni & Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Saidou Madougou, 2022. "Solar Energy Powered Decentralized Smart-Grid for Sustainable Energy Supply in Low-Income Countries: Analysis Considering Climate Change Influences in Togo," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-24, December.
    14. Heinz-Peter Witzke & Pavel Ciaian & Jacques Delince, 2014. "CAPRI long-term climate change scenario analysis: The AgMIP approach," JRC Research Reports JRC85872, Joint Research Centre.
    15. Syed Asif Ali Naqvi & Abdul Majeed Nadeem & Muhammad Amjed Iqbal & Sadia Ali & Asia Naseem, 2019. "Assessing the Vulnerabilities of Current and Future Production Systems in Punjab, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-13, September.
    16. Alexis S. Pascaris & Joshua M. Pearce, 2020. "U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emission Bottlenecks: Prioritization of Targets for Climate Liability," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-28, August.
    17. Jiban Chandra Deb & Stuart Phinn & Nathalie Butt & Clive A. McAlpine, 2019. "Adaptive management and planning for the conservation of four threatened large Asian mammals in a changing climate," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 259-280, February.
    18. Elmar Kriegler & Brian-C O'Neill & Stéphane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Richard-H Moss & Robert Lempert & Thomas J Wilbanks, 2010. "Socio-economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866437, HAL.
    19. Mohamed Kefi & Binaya Kumar Mishra & Yoshifumi Masago & Kensuke Fukushi, 2020. "Analysis of flood damage and influencing factors in urban catchments: case studies in Manila, Philippines, and Jakarta, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2461-2487, December.
    20. Magalhães Filho, L.N.L. & Roebeling, P.C. & Costa, L.F.C. & de Lima, L.T., 2022. "Ecosystem services values at risk in the Atlantic coastal zone due to sea-level rise and socioeconomic development," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:162:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02835-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.