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Past and future sea-level rise along the coast of North Carolina, USA

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  • Robert Kopp
  • Benjamin Horton
  • Andrew Kemp
  • Claudia Tebaldi

Abstract

We evaluate relative sea level (RSL) trajectories for North Carolina, USA, in the context of tide-gauge measurements and geological sea-level reconstructions spanning the last ~11,000 years. RSL rise was fastest (~7 mm/yr) during the early Holocene and slowed over time with the end of the deglaciation. During the pre-Industrial Common Era (i.e., 0–1800 CE), RSL rise (~0.7 to 1.1 mm/yr) was driven primarily by glacio-isostatic adjustment, though dampened by tectonic uplift along the Cape Fear Arch. Ocean/atmosphere dynamics caused centennial variability of up to ~0.6 mm/yr around the long-term rate. It is extremely likely (probability P=0.95) that 20th century RSL rise at Sand Point, NC, (2.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr) was faster than during any other century in at least 2,900 years. Projections based on a fusion of process models, statistical models, expert elicitation, and expert assessment indicate that RSL at Wilmington, NC, is very likely (P=0.90) to rise by 42–132 cm between 2000 and 2100 under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 pathway. Under all emission pathways, 21st century RSL rise is very likely (P>0.90) to be faster than during the 20th century. Due to RSL rise, under RCP 8.5, the current ‘1-in-100 year’ flood is expected at Wilmington in ~30 of the 50 years between 2050-2100. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

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  • Robert Kopp & Benjamin Horton & Andrew Kemp & Claudia Tebaldi, 2015. "Past and future sea-level rise along the coast of North Carolina, USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 693-707, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:132:y:2015:i:4:p:693-707
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1451-x
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    1. Asbury H. Sallenger & Kara S. Doran & Peter A. Howd, 2012. "Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(12), pages 884-888, December.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jurjonas, Matthew & Seekamp, Erin & Rivers, Louie & Cutts, Bethany, 2020. "Uncovering climate (in)justice with an adaptive capacity assessment: A multiple case study in rural coastal North Carolina," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Sierra Woodruff & Todd K. BenDor & Aaron L. Strong, 2018. "Fighting the inevitable: infrastructure investment and coastal community adaptation to sea level rise," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 48-77, January.
    4. Till J. J. Hanebuth & Hermann R. Kudrass & Anja M. Zander & Humayun Syed Akhter & Gertrud Neumann-Denzau & Anwar Zahid, 2022. "Stepwise, earthquake-driven coastal subsidence in the Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta (Sundarbans) since the eighth century deduced from submerged in situ kiln and mangrove remnants," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(1), pages 163-190, March.
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    6. Robert L. Ceres & Chris E. Forest & Klaus Keller, 2017. "Understanding the detectability of potential changes to the 100-year peak storm surge," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 221-235, November.

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