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Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Rahmstorf

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Earth System Analysis)

  • Jason E. Box

    (Geologic Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS))

  • Georg Feulner

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Earth System Analysis)

  • Michael E. Mann

    (Pennsylvania State University, University Park
    Environmental Systems Institute (EESI), University Park)

  • Alexander Robinson

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Earth System Analysis
    Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Dpto Astrofísica y CC de la Atmósfera
    Instituto de Geociencias, UCM-CSIC)

  • Scott Rutherford

    (Roger Williams University)

  • Erik J. Schaffernicht

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Earth System Analysis)

Abstract

Possible changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) provide a key source of uncertainty regarding future climate change. Maps of temperature trends over the twentieth century show a conspicuous region of cooling in the northern Atlantic. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that this cooling may be due to a reduction in the AMOC over the twentieth century and particularly after 1970. Since 1990 the AMOC seems to have partly recovered. This time evolution is consistently suggested by an AMOC index based on sea surface temperatures, by the hemispheric temperature difference, by coral-based proxies and by oceanic measurements. We discuss a possible contribution of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the slowdown. Using a multi-proxy temperature reconstruction for the AMOC index suggests that the AMOC weakness after 1975 is an unprecedented event in the past millennium (p > 0.99). Further melting of Greenland in the coming decades could contribute to further weakening of the AMOC.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Rahmstorf & Jason E. Box & Georg Feulner & Michael E. Mann & Alexander Robinson & Scott Rutherford & Erik J. Schaffernicht, 2015. "Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(5), pages 475-480, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:5:y:2015:i:5:d:10.1038_nclimate2554
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2554
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maya Ben-Yami & Vanessa Skiba & Sebastian Bathiany & Niklas Boers, 2023. "Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Dmitry Orlov & Marija Menshakova & Tomas Thierfelder & Yulia Zaika & Sepp Böhme & Birgitta Evengard & Natalia Pshenichnaya, 2020. "Healthy Ecosystems Are a Prerequisite for Human Health—A Call for Action in the Era of Climate Change with a Focus on Russia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-11, November.
    3. Dániel Topál & Qinghua Ding & Thomas J. Ballinger & Edward Hanna & Xavier Fettweis & Zhe Li & Ildikó Pieczka, 2022. "Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Chenyu Zhu & Zhengyu Liu & Shaoqing Zhang & Lixin Wu, 2023. "Likely accelerated weakening of Atlantic overturning circulation emerges in optimal salinity fingerprint," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Robert Kopp & Benjamin Horton & Andrew Kemp & Claudia Tebaldi, 2015. "Past and future sea-level rise along the coast of North Carolina, USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 693-707, October.
    6. Roman Olson & Soon-Il An & Yanan Fan & Jason P Evans, 2019. "Accounting for skill in trend, variability, and autocorrelation facilitates better multi-model projections: Application to the AMOC and temperature time series," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-24, April.
    7. Simon L. L. Michel & Didier Swingedouw & Pablo Ortega & Guillaume Gastineau & Juliette Mignot & Gerard McCarthy & Myriam Khodri, 2022. "Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    8. Tuomas Kiiski & Tomi Solakivi & Juuso Töyli & Lauri Ojala, 2018. "Long-term dynamics of shipping and icebreaker capacity along the Northern Sea Route," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 20(3), pages 375-399, September.
    9. Fukai Liu & Xun Li & Yiyong Luo & Wenju Cai & Jian Lu & Xiao-Tong Zheng & Sarah M. Kang & Hai Wang & Lei Zhou, 2024. "Increased Asian aerosols drive a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    10. Hiroshi Sumata & Laura Steur & Sebastian Gerland & Dmitry V. Divine & Olga Pavlova, 2022. "Unprecedented decline of Arctic sea ice outflow in 2018," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Denis L. Volkov & Kate Zhang & William E. Johns & Joshua K. Willis & Will Hobbs & Marlos Goes & Hong Zhang & Dimitris Menemenlis, 2023. "Atlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along the United States southeast coast," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Thomas Slater & Andrew Shepherd & Malcolm McMillan & Amber Leeson & Lin Gilbert & Alan Muir & Peter Kuipers Munneke & Brice Noël & Xavier Fettweis & Michiel Broeke & Kate Briggs, 2021. "Increased variability in Greenland Ice Sheet runoff from satellite observations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    13. Christy M. Foran & Kelsie M. Baker & Michael J. Narcisi & Igor Linkov, 2015. "Susceptibility assessment of urban tree species in Cambridge, MA, from future climatic extremes," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 389-400, September.
    14. Shengpeng Wang & Zhao Jing & Lixin Wu & Shantong Sun & Qihua Peng & Hong Wang & Yu Zhang & Jian Shi, 2023. "Southern hemisphere eastern boundary upwelling systems emerging as future marine heatwave hotspots under greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    15. Sara Berglund & Kristofer Döös & Sjoerd Groeskamp & Trevor J. McDougall, 2022. "The downward spiralling nature of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    16. Carlo Grillenzoni & Elisa Carraro, 2021. "Sequential tests of causality between environmental time series: With application to the global warming theory," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), February.

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