IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v5y2015i5d10.1038_nclimate2554.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Rahmstorf

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Earth System Analysis)

  • Jason E. Box

    (Geologic Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS))

  • Georg Feulner

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Earth System Analysis)

  • Michael E. Mann

    (Pennsylvania State University, University Park
    Environmental Systems Institute (EESI), University Park)

  • Alexander Robinson

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Earth System Analysis
    Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Dpto Astrofísica y CC de la Atmósfera
    Instituto de Geociencias, UCM-CSIC)

  • Scott Rutherford

    (Roger Williams University)

  • Erik J. Schaffernicht

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Earth System Analysis)

Abstract

Possible changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) provide a key source of uncertainty regarding future climate change. Maps of temperature trends over the twentieth century show a conspicuous region of cooling in the northern Atlantic. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that this cooling may be due to a reduction in the AMOC over the twentieth century and particularly after 1970. Since 1990 the AMOC seems to have partly recovered. This time evolution is consistently suggested by an AMOC index based on sea surface temperatures, by the hemispheric temperature difference, by coral-based proxies and by oceanic measurements. We discuss a possible contribution of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the slowdown. Using a multi-proxy temperature reconstruction for the AMOC index suggests that the AMOC weakness after 1975 is an unprecedented event in the past millennium (p > 0.99). Further melting of Greenland in the coming decades could contribute to further weakening of the AMOC.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Rahmstorf & Jason E. Box & Georg Feulner & Michael E. Mann & Alexander Robinson & Scott Rutherford & Erik J. Schaffernicht, 2015. "Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(5), pages 475-480, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:5:y:2015:i:5:d:10.1038_nclimate2554
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2554
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2554
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/nclimate2554?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:5:y:2015:i:5:d:10.1038_nclimate2554. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.