IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v122y2014i4p723-734.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climatic factors controlling plant sensitivity to warming

Author

Listed:
  • Andrei Lapenis

    ()

  • Hugh Henry
  • Mathias Vuille
  • James Mower

Abstract

Plant sensitivity to warming can be expressed as β or the number of days of advance in leafing or flowering events per 1 °C of Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) change. Many local studies demonstrate that β estimates for spring flowering species are usually larger than estimates for plants flowering in summer or fall. Until now, however, neither observational nor experimental estimates of this parameter were considered to be climate or geographically dependent. Here we question this paradigm through reanalysis of observational β estimates and mathematical modeling of the seasonal warming signal. Statistical analysis of a large number of bulk (averaged over species) estimates of β derived from the Pan European Phenology Data network (PEP725) revealed a positive spatial correlation with MAT, as well as a negative correlation with the Seasonal Temperature Range (STR). These spatial correlations of bulk β values as well as interseasonal variability in β were explained using a simple deterministic model of the Thermal Growing Season (TGS). More specifically, we found that the geographic distribution of bulk plant sensitivity to warming as well as the seasonal decline of β were controlled by the seasonal patterns in the warming signal and by average soil thermal properties. Thus, until recently, plants managed to keep pace with climate warming by shifting their leafing and flowering events by the same number of days as the length of the period of weather suitable for their growth. Our model predicts, however, an even greater increase in the TGS for subsequent increases in MAT. Depending on how they interact with other factors such as changes in precipitation and increased temperature variability, these longer thermal growing seasons may not be beneficial for plant growth. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Andrei Lapenis & Hugh Henry & Mathias Vuille & James Mower, 2014. "Climatic factors controlling plant sensitivity to warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 723-734, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:122:y:2014:i:4:p:723-734
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1010-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-013-1010-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:122:y:2014:i:4:p:723-734. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.