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Assessing the robustness of projected precipitation changes over central Africa on the basis of a multitude of global and regional climate projections

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  • Andreas Haensler
  • Fahad Saeed
  • Daniela Jacob

Abstract

It is well accepted within the scientific community that a large ensemble of different projections is required to achieve robust climate change information for a specific region. For this purpose we have compiled a state-of-the-art multi-model multi-scenario ensemble of global and regional precipitation projections. This ensemble combines several global projections from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 databases, along with some recently downscaled regional CORDEX-Africa projections. Altogether daily precipitation data from 77 different climate change projections is analysed; separated into 31 projections for a high and 46 for a low emission scenario. We find a robust indication that, independent of the underlying emission scenario, annual total precipitation amounts over the central African region are not likely to change severely in the future. However some robust changes in precipitation characteristics, like the intensification of heavy rainfall events as well as an increase in the number of dry spells during the rainy season are projected for the future. Further analysis shows that over some regions the results of the climate change assessment clearly depend on the size of the analyzed ensemble. This indicates the need of a “large-enough” ensemble of independent climate projections to allow for a reliable climate change assessment. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Haensler & Fahad Saeed & Daniela Jacob, 2013. "Assessing the robustness of projected precipitation changes over central Africa on the basis of a multitude of global and regional climate projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 349-363, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:121:y:2013:i:2:p:349-363
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0863-8
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    1. Mekou Bele & Anne Tiani & Olufunso Somorin & Denis Sonwa, 2013. "Exploring vulnerability and adaptation to climate change of communities in the forest zone of Cameroon," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 875-889, August.
    2. Sonwa, Denis J. & Somorin, Olufunso A. & Jum, Cyprian & Bele, Mekou Y. & Nkem, Johnson N., 2012. "Vulnerability, forest-related sectors and climate change adaptation: The case of Cameroon," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 1-9.
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    1. Sara Karam & Ousmane Seidou & Nidhi Nagabhatla & Duminda Perera & Raphael M. Tshimanga, 2022. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on climatic extremes in the Congo River Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-24, February.
    2. Greta C. Dargie & Ian T. Lawson & Tim J. Rayden & Lera Miles & Edward T. A. Mitchard & Susan E. Page & Yannick E. Bocko & Suspense A. Ifo & Simon L. Lewis, 2019. "Congo Basin peatlands: threats and conservation priorities," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 669-686, April.
    3. Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla & Nellie Elguindi & Filippo Giorgi & Dominik Wisser, 2016. "Projected robust shift of climate zones over West Africa in response to anthropogenic climate change for the late 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 241-253, January.
    4. Mouhamadou Sylla & Nellie Elguindi & Filippo Giorgi & Dominik Wisser, 2016. "Projected robust shift of climate zones over West Africa in response to anthropogenic climate change for the late 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 241-253, January.
    5. Daniel Murdiyarso & Erik Lilleskov & Randy Kolka, 2019. "Tropical peatlands under siege: the need for evidence-based policies and strategies," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 493-505, April.
    6. Fahad Saeed & Mansour Almazroui & Nazrul Islam & Mariam Saleh Khan, 2017. "Intensification of future heat waves in Pakistan: a study using CORDEX regional climate models ensemble," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1635-1647, July.
    7. Balcha, Yodit & Macleod, Jamie, 2017. "Climate Change, Agricultural Production and Trade in Africa," Conference papers 332921, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Ahmed, Shamseddin Musa, 2020. "Impacts of drought, food security policy and climate change on performance of irrigation schemes in Sub-saharan Africa: The case of Sudan," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    9. Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo & Ismaïla Diallo & Moussa Diakhaté & Derbetini A. Vondou & Mamadou L. Mbaye & Andreas Haensler & Amadou T. Gaye & Clément Tchawoua, 2019. "Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of extreme rainfall events from CORDEX simulations over Central Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 339-357, August.
    10. Babatunde J. Abiodun & Jimmy Adegoke & Abayomi A. Abatan & Chidi A. Ibe & Temitope S. Egbebiyi & Francois Engelbrecht & Izidine Pinto, 2017. "Potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation over four African coastal cities," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 399-413, August.

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