IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v211y2013i1p357-37910.1007-s10479-013-1496-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Continuous-time Markov chain models to estimate the premium for extended hedge fund lockups

Author

Listed:
  • Kun Park
  • Ward Whitt

Abstract

A lockup period for investment in a hedge-fund is a time period after making the investment during which an investor cannot freely redeem his investment. Since long lockup periods have recently been imposed, it is important to estimate the premium an investor should expect from extended lockups. For this, Derman et al. (Wilmott J. 1(5–6):263–293, 2009 ) proposed a parsimonious three-state discrete-time Markov Chain (DTMC) to model the state of a hedge fund, allowing the state to change randomly among the states “good,” “sick” and “dead” every year. In this paper, we propose an alternative three-state absorbing continuous-time Markov Chain (CTMC) model, which allows state changes continuously in time instead of yearly. Allowing more dynamic state changes is more realistic, but the CTMC model requires new techniques for parameter fitting. We employ nonlinear programming to solve the new calibration equations. We show that the more realistic CTMC model is a viable alternative to the previous DTMC model for estimating the premium for extended hedge fund lockups. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Kun Park & Ward Whitt, 2013. "Continuous-time Markov chain models to estimate the premium for extended hedge fund lockups," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 211(1), pages 357-379, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:211:y:2013:i:1:p:357-379:10.1007/s10479-013-1496-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-013-1496-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10479-013-1496-z
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-013-1496-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ravi Jagannathan & Alexey Malakhov & Dmitry Novikov, 2010. "Do Hot Hands Exist among Hedge Fund Managers? An Empirical Evaluation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 217-255, February.
    2. Franklin R. Edwards & Mustafa Onur Caglayan, 2001. "Hedge Fund Performance and Manager Skill," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(11), pages 1003-1028, November.
    3. Nicole M. Boyson & Christof W. Stahel & René M. Stulz, 2010. "Hedge Fund Contagion and Liquidity Shocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1789-1816, October.
    4. Longstaff, Francis A, 2001. "Optimal Portfolio Choice and the Valuation of Illiquid Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 407-431.
    5. Aragon, George O., 2007. "Share restrictions and asset pricing: Evidence from the hedge fund industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 33-58, January.
    6. Longstaff, Francis A, 1995. "How Much Can Marketability Affect Security Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1767-1774, December.
    7. S. Browne & M. A. Milevsky & T. S. Salisbury, 2003. "Asset Allocation and the Liquidity Premium for Illiquid Annuities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 509-526, September.
    8. Emanuel Derman & Kun Soo Park & Ward Whitt, 2010. "A stochastic-difference-equation model for hedge-fund returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 701-733.
    9. Stoyan Stoyanov & Svetlozar Rachev & Frank Fabozzi, 2013. "Sensitivity of portfolio VaR and CVaR to portfolio return characteristics," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 205(1), pages 169-187, May.
    10. M. Wahab & Chi-Guhn Lee, 2011. "Pricing swing options with regime switching," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 139-160, May.
    11. D Wu & D L Olson, 2010. "Enterprise risk management: coping with model risk in a large bank," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(2), pages 179-190, February.
    12. Mazin Al Janabi, 2013. "Optimal and coherent economic-capital structures: evidence from long and short-sales trading positions under illiquid market perspectives," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 205(1), pages 109-139, May.
    13. Agarwal, Vikas & Naik, Narayan Y., 2000. "Multi-Period Performance Persistence Analysis of Hedge Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 327-342, September.
    14. Itzhak Ben-David & Francesco Franzoni & Rabih Moussawi, 2012. "Hedge Fund Stock Trading in the Financial Crisis of 2007--2009," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(1), pages 1-54.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew W. Lo & Mila Getmansky & Peter A. Lee, 2015. "Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry in Transition," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 483-577, December.
    2. Aragon, George O. & Martin, J. Spencer & Shi, Zhen, 2019. "Who benefits in a crisis? Evidence from hedge fund stock and option holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 345-361.
    3. Benoît Dewaele, 2013. "Leverage and Alpha: The Case of Funds of Hedge Funds," Working Papers CEB 13-033, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Zheng Sun & Ashley W. Wang & Lu Zheng, 2016. "Only Winners in Tough Times Repeat: Hedge Fund Performance Persistence over Different Market Conditions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-030, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Mustafa Onur Caglayan & Sevan Ulutas, 2014. "Emerging Market Exposures and the Predictability of Hedge Fund Returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 149-180, March.
    6. Agarwal, Vikas & Green, T. Clifton & Ren, Honglin, 2018. "Alpha or beta in the eye of the beholder: What drives hedge fund flows?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 417-434.
    7. Manuel Ammann & Otto Huber & Markus Schmid, 2013. "Hedge Fund Characteristics and Performance Persistence," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(2), pages 209-250, March.
    8. Benoît Dewaele, 2013. "Portfolio Optimization for Hedge Funds through Time-Varying Coefficients," Working Papers CEB 13-032, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    9. Canepa, Alessandra & de la O. González, María & Skinner, Frank S., 2020. "Hedge fund strategies: A non-parametric analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. Andrew Ang & Nicolas P.B. Bollen, 2010. "Locked Up by a Lockup: Valuing Liquidity as a Real Option," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 1069-1096, September.
    11. El Kalak, Izidin & Azevedo, Alcino & Hudson, Robert, 2016. "Reviewing the hedge funds literature I: Hedge funds and hedge funds' managerial characteristics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 85-97.
    12. Hwang, Inchang & Xu, Simon & In, Francis & Kim, Tong Suk, 2017. "Systemic risk and cross-sectional hedge fund returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 109-130.
    13. Douglas Cumming & Na Dai, 2010. "A Law and Finance Analysis of Hedge Funds," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 997-1026, September.
    14. Charles Cao & Grant Farnsworth & Bing Liang & Andrew W. Lo, 2017. "Return Smoothing, Liquidity Costs, and Investor Flows: Evidence from a Separate Account Platform," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(7), pages 2233-2250, July.
    15. Klubinski, William & Verousis, Thanos, 2019. "On the underestimation of risk in hedge fund performance persistence: geolocation and investment strategy effects," MPRA Paper 109766, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 May 2021.
    16. R. Gibson Brandon & S. Gyger, 2011. "Optimal hedge fund portfolios under liquidation risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 53-67.
    17. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa O., 2014. "Macroeconomic risk and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 1-19.
    18. Turan G. Bali & Stephen J. Brown & K. Ozgur Demirtas, 2013. "Do Hedge Funds Outperform Stocks and Bonds?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(8), pages 1887-1903, August.
    19. Gao, Meng & Huang, Jiekun, 2016. "Capitalizing on Capitol Hill: Informed trading by hedge fund managers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 521-545.
    20. Joenväärä, Juha & Kauppila, Mikko & Kahra, Hannu, 2021. "Hedge fund portfolio selection with fund characteristics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:211:y:2013:i:1:p:357-379:10.1007/s10479-013-1496-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.