IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/alstar/v107y2023i1d10.1007_s10182-022-00456-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integration of model-based recursive partitioning with bias reduction estimation: a case study assessing the impact of Oliver’s four factors on the probability of winning a basketball game

Author

Listed:
  • Manlio Migliorati

    (University of Brescia)

  • Marica Manisera

    (University of Brescia)

  • Paola Zuccolotto

    (University of Brescia)

Abstract

In this contribution, we investigate the importance of Oliver’s Four Factors, proposed in the literature to identify a basketball team’s strengths and weaknesses in terms of shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws, as success drivers of a basketball game. In order to investigate the role of each factor in the success of a team in a match, we applied the MOdel-Based recursive partitioning (MOB) algorithm to real data concerning 19,138 matches of 16 National Basketball Association (NBA) regular seasons (from 2004–2005 to 2019–2020). MOB, instead of fitting one global Generalized Linear Model (GLM) to all observations, partitions the observations according to selected partitioning variables and estimates several ad hoc local GLMs for subgroups of observations. The manuscript’s aim is twofold: (1) in order to deal with (quasi) separation problems leading to convergence problems in the numerical solution of Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation in MOB, we propose a methodological extension of GLM-based recursive partitioning from standard ML estimation to bias-reduced (BR) estimation; and (2) we apply the BR-based GLM trees to basketball analytics. The results show models very easy to interpret that can provide useful support to coaching staff’s decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Manlio Migliorati & Marica Manisera & Paola Zuccolotto, 2023. "Integration of model-based recursive partitioning with bias reduction estimation: a case study assessing the impact of Oliver’s four factors on the probability of winning a basketball game," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 107(1), pages 271-293, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:alstar:v:107:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10182-022-00456-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10182-022-00456-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10182-022-00456-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10182-022-00456-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heidi Seibold & Torsten Hothorn & Achim Zeileis, 2019. "Generalised linear model trees with global additive effects," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 13(3), pages 703-725, September.
    2. Wei Gu & Thomas L. Saaty & Rozann Whitaker, 2016. "Expert System for Ice Hockey Game Prediction: Data Mining with Human Judgment," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(04), pages 763-789, July.
    3. David John A. & Pasteur R. Drew & Ahmad M. Saif & Janning Michael C., 2011. "NFL Prediction using Committees of Artificial Neural Networks," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-15, May.
    4. Kubatko Justin & Oliver Dean & Pelton Kevin & Rosenbaum Dan T, 2007. "A Starting Point for Analyzing Basketball Statistics," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-24, July.
    5. Metulini Rodolfo & Manisera Marica & Zuccolotto Paola, 2018. "Modelling the dynamic pattern of surface area in basketball and its effects on team performance," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 117-130, September.
    6. Marco Sandri & Paola Zuccolotto & Marica Manisera, 2020. "Markov switching modelling of shooting performance variability and teammate interactions in basketball," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1337-1356, November.
    7. Loeffelholz Bernard & Bednar Earl & Bauer Kenneth W, 2009. "Predicting NBA Games Using Neural Networks," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, January.
    8. Hubáček, Ondřej & Šourek, Gustav & Železný, Filip, 2019. "Exploiting sports-betting market using machine learning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 783-796.
    9. E C Kenne Pagui & A Salvan & N Sartori, 2017. "Median bias reduction of maximum likelihood estimates," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 104(4), pages 923-938.
    10. Fadi Thabtah & Li Zhang & Neda Abdelhamid, 2019. "NBA Game Result Prediction Using Feature Analysis and Machine Learning," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 103-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rodolfo Metulini & Giorgio Gnecco, 2023. "Measuring players’ importance in basketball using the generalized Shapley value," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 441-465, June.
    2. Pierpalo D’Urso & Livia Giovanni & Vincenzina Vitale, 2023. "A Bayesian network to analyse basketball players’ performances: a multivariate copula-based approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 419-440, June.
    3. Alessandro Chessa & Pierpaolo D’Urso & Livia Giovanni & Vincenzina Vitale & Alfonso Gebbia, 2023. "Complex networks for community detection of basketball players," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 363-389, June.
    4. Paola Zuccolotto & Marco Sandri & Marica Manisera, 2023. "Spatial performance analysis in basketball with CART, random forest and extremely randomized trees," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 495-519, June.
    5. Paola Zuccolotto & Marco Sandri & Marica Manisera, 2021. "Spatial Performance Indicators and Graphs in Basketball," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 156(2), pages 725-738, August.
    6. Jun Woo Kim & Mar Magnusen & Seunghoon Jeong, 2023. "March Madness prediction: Different machine learning approaches with non‐box score statistics," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 2223-2236, June.
    7. Sumit Sarkar & Sooraj Kamath, 2023. "Does luck play a role in the determination of the rank positions in football leagues? A study of Europe’s ‘big five’," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 245-260, June.
    8. Hubáček, Ondřej & Šourek, Gustav & Železný, Filip, 2019. "Exploiting sports-betting market using machine learning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 783-796.
    9. Joseph Price & Justin Wolfers, 2010. "Racial Discrimination Among NBA Referees," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1859-1887.
    10. Holmes, Benjamin & McHale, Ian G. & Żychaluk, Kamila, 2023. "A Markov chain model for forecasting results of mixed martial arts contests," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 623-640.
    11. Galli, L. & Galvan, G. & Levato, T. & Liti, C. & Piccialli, V. & Sciandrone, M., 2021. "Football: Discovering elapsing-time bias in the science of success," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    12. Gabel Alan & Redner Sidney, 2012. "Random Walk Picture of Basketball Scoring," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, March.
    13. Shah Hussain & Muhammad Qasim Khan, 2023. "Student-Performulator: Predicting Students’ Academic Performance at Secondary and Intermediate Level Using Machine Learning," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 637-655, June.
    14. Rigon, Tommaso & Aliverti, Emanuele, 2023. "Conjugate priors and bias reduction for logistic regression models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    15. Hubáček, Ondřej & Šír, Gustav, 2023. "Beating the market with a bad predictive model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 691-719.
    16. Tullio Facchinetti & Rodolfo Metulini & Paola Zuccolotto, 2023. "Filtering active moments in basketball games using data from players tracking systems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 521-538, June.
    17. Leonardo Lamas & José Vitor Senatore & Gilbert Fellingham, 2020. "Two steps for scoring a point: Creating and converting opportunities in invasion team sports," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-16, October.
    18. da Costa, Igor Barbosa & Marinho, Leandro Balby & Pires, Carlos Eduardo Santos, 2022. "Forecasting football results and exploiting betting markets: The case of “both teams to score”," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 895-909.
    19. Wunderlich, Fabian & Memmert, Daniel, 2020. "Are betting returns a useful measure of accuracy in (sports) forecasting?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 713-722.
    20. Letian Zhang, 2019. "Who Loses When a Team Wins? Better Performance Increases Racial Bias," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(1), pages 40-50, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:alstar:v:107:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10182-022-00456-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.