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Wpływ systemów emerytalnych na efekt Laffera w krajach OECD

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  • Antoni Chrzonstowski

Abstract

Celem artykułu było wyznaczenie maksimum krzywej Laffera w gospodarkach poszczególnych krajów OECD posiadających instytucjonalne systemy emerytalne. Do realizacji tego zadania został wykorzystany model matematyczny opracowany wcześniej przez autora. Model przewiduje teoretycznie możliwość wystąpienia efektu związanego z krzywą Laffera w gospodarce z instytucjonalnym systemem emerytalnym. Podstawowa formuła modelu łączy produkt gospodarki tworzący wynagrodzenie czynników wytwórczych (kapitału i pracy) ze zmienną, którą jest stosunek liczby emerytów do liczby pracujących. Metodyka badania uwzględniała trzy etapy analizy z wykorzystaniem dostępnych danych statystycznych krajów OECD oraz bazy danych Banku Światowego. Pierwszy i drugi etap badania nie wypadł pomyślnie dla wszystkich krajów OECD. Kryteria modelu dla okresu 2001–2010 spełniło tylko 16 gospodarek na 34 zbadanych. Jednakże obliczenia przeprowadzone w oparciu o dane statystyczne potwierdzają przewidywania modelu. Gospodarka każdego kraju OECD może znajdować się w maksimum krzywej Laffera. To maksimum może być związane ze stosunkiem liczby emerytów do liczby pracujących z zakresu od 0 do 1. Może być ono umiejscowione bliżej 0 lub bliżej 1. Zależy to od elastyczności produktu względem kapitału w gospodarce. Przeprowadzone obliczenia nie rozstrzygają jednak, jaka jest rzeczywista w danej gospodarce elastyczność produktu względem kapitału.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoni Chrzonstowski, 2014. "Wpływ systemów emerytalnych na efekt Laffera w krajach OECD," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 141-160.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2014:i:1:p:141-160
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    system emerytalny; repartycyjny system emerytalny; kapitałowy system emerytalny; krzywa Laffera; kraje OECD;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J19 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Other
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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