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Нечетко-Множественная Оценка Параметров Эффективности Инновационного Проекта // Fuzzy Set Assessment Of Innovative Project Effectiveness Parameters

Author

Listed:
  • A. Baranov O.

    (Novosibirsk State National Research University)

  • E. Musyko I.

    (Novosibirsk State Technical University)

  • V. Pavlov N.

    (Saint Petersburg State Polytechnic University)

  • А. Баранов О

    (Новосибирский национальный исследовательский государственный университет)

  • Е. Музыко И.

    (Новосибирский государственный технический университет)

  • В. Павлов Н.

    (Санкт-Петербургский политехнический университет Петра Великого)

Abstract

Investments made by venture capital funds are characterized by high uncertainty and risk, and quite often they have a step-by-step implementation scenario. In this regard, the traditional discounted cash flow method can be supplemented with other approaches that take into account the flexibility in decision-making, in particular, by assessing the effectiveness of an innovative project with methods that are used abroad but so far have not found wide application in Russia. One of these methods is the method of real options. The traditional analysis of the innovation project effectiveness can also be augmented by the study of the impact of the uncertainty of future cash flows generated by the project on the effectiveness indices using the method of fuzzy sets. The application of real options as well as fuzzy sets is, according to the authors, a way to improve the existing methods of assessing the cost-effectiveness of innovative projects. The paper is devoted to fuzzy-set assessment of the sustainability of financial flows generated by an innovative project and its effectiveness indices. Briefly described is a methodology for estimating the reliability and stability of the fuzzy metrics. The results of computing fuzzy set indices to assess the cost effectiveness of real innovative projects implemented in the territory of Russia and funded by venture capital funds are provided. A meaningful interpretation of the results obtained is given. The use of the fuzzy-set approach to the value assessment of a composite call option by the Geske-Hsu model giving additional opportunities is described. Для инвестиций, которые осуществляют венчурные фонды, характерны высокие неопределенность и риск, и они достаточно часто имеют поэтапную природу. В связи с этим традиционный метод дисконтированных денежных потоков может быть дополнен иными подходами, способными учесть гибкость в принятии решений, в частности посредством оценки эффективности инновационного проекта с помощью методов, используемых в мировой практике, но пока не нашедших в России широкого применения. Одним из таких методов является метод реальных опционов. Традиционный анализ эффективности инновационного проекта также может быть дополнен исследованием влияния на показатели эффективности неопределенности генерируемых проектом будущих финансовых потоков с помощью метода нечетких множеств. Применение метода реальных опционов, а также аппарата нечетких множеств является, по мнению авторов, направлением совершенствования существующих методов оценки эффективности инновационных проектов. Статья посвящена нечетко-множественной оценке устойчивости генерируемых инновационным проектом финансовых потоков и показателей его эффективности. Кратко описывается методика оценки надежности и устойчивости нечетких показателей. Представлены результаты расчетов нечетко-множественных показателей оценки экономической эффективности реального инновационного проекта, реализуемого на территории России и финансируемого за счет средств венчурного фонда. Дана содержательная интерпретация полученных результатов. Описывается применение нечетко-множественного подхода к оценке стоимости составного колл-опциона по модели Геске-Хсу, использование которого дает дополнительные возможности.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Baranov O. & E. Musyko I. & V. Pavlov N. & А. Баранов О & Е. Музыко И. & В. Павлов Н., 2016. "Нечетко-Множественная Оценка Параметров Эффективности Инновационного Проекта // Fuzzy Set Assessment Of Innovative Project Effectiveness Parameters," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 20(6), pages 120-132.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:financ:y:2016:i:6:p:120-132
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
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