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Критика Формулы Ирвинга Фишера И Иллюзии Современной Монетарной Политики

Author

Listed:
  • Глазьев С.Ю.
  • Горидько Н.П.
  • Нижегородцев Р.М.

Abstract

В статье обосновывается теоретическая несостоятельность формулы Ирвинга Фишера, при помощи которой ученые монетаристской школы пытаются обосновать механизмы преодоления инфляции на основе сжатия объемов денежной массы. Доказывается, что данная модель является линеаризованным приближением нелинейных зависимостей, имеющих место в реальных экономических системах. На основе статистических данных ряда стран за последние 15 лет строятся регрессионные модели, доказывающие наличие нелинейной функциональной связи между объемом денежной массы и темпом инфляции (кривая Горидько) в среднесрочном периоде. На основе нелинейных регрессионных моделей, связывающих темпы инфляции с темпами экономического роста, развивается концепция NSEGRI (не замедляющих экономический рост темпов инфляции). Обсуждаются вопросы недомонетизации и сверхмонетизации экономики в различных странах на основе нелинейных моделей, связывающих объем ВВП с объемом денежной массы. Обосновывается вывод о том, что одним из существенных источников нелинейности в рассматриваемых зависимостях в среднесрочном периоде является неизбежность инновационных сдвигов. Проводятся межстрановые сопоставления, позволяющие выявить различия в монетарной политике стран, занимающих разное положение в мировом хозяйстве. Даются рекомендации относительно современной монетарной политики в России.

Suggested Citation

  • Глазьев С.Ю. & Горидько Н.П. & Нижегородцев Р.М., 2016. "Критика Формулы Ирвинга Фишера И Иллюзии Современной Монетарной Политики," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 52(4), pages 3-23, октябрь.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:cememm:v:52:y:2016:i:4:p:3-23
    Note: Москва
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
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