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The Prospective Impact of Climate Change on Tourism and Regional Economic Development: A Simulation Study for Bavaria

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  • Anja Soboll
  • Tobias Klier
  • Stefan Heumann

Abstract

In recent years, climate change and its economic effects increasingly have become the focus of public attention. Previous investigations, however, have dealt with large spatial units and thus have blurred small-scale distinctions. This paper analyses the future economic impacts of climate change at the regional level in order to ascertain local positive and negative development trends. To this end, scenarios based on different climate, societal and economic trends are used to estimate on an unprecedented small scale prospective tourism demand and the derived economic development for the districts studied.

Suggested Citation

  • Anja Soboll & Tobias Klier & Stefan Heumann, 2012. "The Prospective Impact of Climate Change on Tourism and Regional Economic Development: A Simulation Study for Bavaria," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 139-157, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:18:y:2012:i:1:p:139-157
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2012.0103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sara Proença & Elias Soukiazis, 2008. "Tourism as an Economic Growth Factor: A Case Study for Southern European Countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(4), pages 791-806, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Amitrajeet A. Batabyal & Seung Jick Yoo, 2020. "A theoretical analysis of preference matching by tourists and destination choice," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 809-820, October.
    2. Anja Berghammer & Jürgen Schmude, 2014. "The Christmas—Easter Shift: Simulating Alpine Ski Resorts' Future Development under Climate Change Conditions Using the Parameter ‘Optimal Ski Day’," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(2), pages 323-336, April.
    3. Çalişkan, Uğur & Gursoy, Dogan & Özer, Özgür & Chi, Oscar Hengxuan, 2022. "Effects of Tourism on Local Residents’ Quality of Life, Happiness and Life Satisfaction: Moderating Role of the COVID-19 Risk Perceptions," Journal of Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, Cinturs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, University of Algarve, vol. 10(4), pages 274-291.
    4. Mayer, Marius & Steiger, Robert, 2013. "Skitourismus in den Bayerischen Alpen: Entwicklung und Zukunftsperspektiven," Arbeitsberichte der ARL: Aufsätze, in: Job, Hubert & Mayer, Marius (ed.), Tourismus und Regionalentwicklung in Bayern, volume 9, pages 164-212, ARL – Akademie für Raumentwicklung in der Leibniz-Gemeinschaft.
    5. Andrea Martínez Salgueiro & Maria-Antonia Tarrazon-Rodon, 2021. "Weather derivatives to mitigate meteorological risks in tourism management: An empirical application to celebrations of Comunidad Valenciana (Spain)," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 591-613, June.
    6. Martin Falk & Robert Steiger, 2020. "Size facilitates profitable ski lift operations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(7), pages 1197-1211, November.
    7. Job, Hubert & Mayer, Marius & Haßlacher, Peter & Nischik, Gero & Knauf, Christoph & Pütz, Marco & Essl, Josef & Marlin, Andreas & Kopf, Manfred & Obkircher, Stefan, 2021. "Analysing, assessing and safeguarding Alpine open spaces through spatial planning," Forschungsberichte der ARL, ARL – Akademie für Raumentwicklung in der Leibniz-Gemeinschaft, volume 18, number 18, July.

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