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Regression-based Adjustment for Time-varying Confounders

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  • Geoffrey T. Wodtke

Abstract

Social scientists are often interested in estimating the marginal effects of a time-varying treatment on an end-of-study continuous outcome. With observational data, estimating these effects is complicated by the presence of time-varying confounders affected by prior treatments, which may lead to bias in conventional regression and matching estimators. In this situation, inverse-probability-of-treatment-weighted (IPTW) estimation of a marginal structural model remains unbiased if treatment assignment is sequentially ignorable and the conditional probability of treatment is correctly modeled, but this method is not without limitations. In particular, it is difficult to use with continuous treatments, and it is relatively inefficient. This article explores using an alternative regression-based method—regression-with-residuals (RWR) estimation of a constrained structural nested mean model—that may overcome some of these limitations in practice. It is unbiased for the marginal effects of a time-varying treatment if treatment assignment is sequentially ignorable, the treatment effects of interest are invariant across levels of the confounders, and a model for the conditional mean of the outcome is correctly specified. The performance of RWR estimation relative to IPTW estimation is evaluated with a series of simulation experiments and with an empirical example based on longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Results indicate that it may outperform IPTW estimation in certain situations.

Suggested Citation

  • Geoffrey T. Wodtke, 2020. "Regression-based Adjustment for Time-varying Confounders," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 49(4), pages 906-946, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:somere:v:49:y:2020:i:4:p:906-946
    DOI: 10.1177/0049124118769087
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Almirall & Thomas Ten Have & Susan A. Murphy, 2010. "Structural Nested Mean Models for Assessing Time-Varying Effect Moderation," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 131-139, March.
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    4. Geoffrey Wodtke, 2013. "Duration and Timing of Exposure to Neighborhood Poverty and the Risk of Adolescent Parenthood," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(5), pages 1765-1788, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sourabh Balgi & Jose M. Pe~na & Adel Daoud, 2022. "Counterfactual Analysis of the Impact of the IMF Program on Child Poverty in the Global-South Region using Causal-Graphical Normalizing Flows," Papers 2202.09391, arXiv.org.

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