IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/risrel/v234y2020i5p708-720.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian inference for a novel hierarchical accelerated degradation model considering the mechanism variation

Author

Listed:
  • Hongyu Wang
  • Xiaobing Ma
  • Yu Zhao

Abstract

For highly reliable products, accelerated thermal degradation tests are efficient to provide feedback on reliability information. In accelerated thermal degradation tests, the degradation data collected at the elevated temperatures are used to extrapolate the performance of products at the normal temperature. An important tool in such extrapolation is the Arrhenius model, in which the activation energy is generally assumed to be constant. However, in some practical accelerated thermal degradation tests of polymeric materials, a variation of the underlying degradation mechanism is induced when the temperature rises to a certain high level, resulting in a change in the activation energy. Motivated by this phenomenon, we propose a two-stage Arrhenius model. The two stages correspond to the lower and higher temperature ranges with different activation energies. Then, this new model is incorporated to the degradation model, yielding a novel hierarchical model for the accelerated thermal degradation test data from polymeric materials involving a mechanism variation. Furthermore, the Bayesian method is adopted for parameter inference, and the lifetime distribution is obtained subsequently. A practical example of polysiloxane rubbers demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongyu Wang & Xiaobing Ma & Yu Zhao, 2020. "Bayesian inference for a novel hierarchical accelerated degradation model considering the mechanism variation," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(5), pages 708-720, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:234:y:2020:i:5:p:708-720
    DOI: 10.1177/1748006X20918784
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1748006X20918784
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1748006X20918784?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhi‐Sheng Ye & Min Xie, 2015. "Rejoinder to ‘Stochastic modelling and analysis of degradation for highly reliable products’," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 35-36, January.
    2. Zhi‐Sheng Ye & Min Xie, 2015. "Stochastic modelling and analysis of degradation for highly reliable products," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 16-32, January.
    3. Wang, Pingping & Tang, Yincai & Joo Bae, Suk & He, Yong, 2018. "Bayesian analysis of two-phase degradation data based on change-point Wiener process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 244-256.
    4. Bae, Suk Joo & Yuan, Tao & Ning, Shuluo & Kuo, Way, 2015. "A Bayesian approach to modeling two-phase degradation using change-point regression," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 66-74.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pang, Zhenan & Si, Xiaosheng & Hu, Changhua & Du, Dangbo & Pei, Hong, 2021. "A Bayesian Inference for Remaining Useful Life Estimation by Fusing Accelerated Degradation Data and Condition Monitoring Data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liao, Guobo & Yin, Hongpeng & Chen, Min & Lin, Zheng, 2021. "Remaining useful life prediction for multi-phase deteriorating process based on Wiener process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    2. Zhang, Jian-Xun & Si, Xiao-Sheng & Du, Dang-Bo & Hu, Chang-Hua & Hu, Chen, 2020. "A novel iterative approach of lifetime estimation for standby systems with deteriorating spare parts," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    3. Wang, Xiaofei & Wang, Bing Xing & Jiang, Pei Hua & Hong, Yili, 2020. "Accurate reliability inference based on Wiener process with random effects for degradation data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    4. Zhao, Xiujie & Chen, Piao & Gaudoin, Olivier & Doyen, Laurent, 2021. "Accelerated degradation tests with inspection effects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 292(3), pages 1099-1114.
    5. Ling, M.H. & Ng, H.K.T. & Tsui, K.L., 2019. "Bayesian and likelihood inferences on remaining useful life in two-phase degradation models under gamma process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 77-85.
    6. Kim, Seong-Joon & Mun, Byeong Min & Bae, Suk Joo, 2019. "A cost-driven reliability demonstration plan based on accelerated degradation tests," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 226-239.
    7. Zhang, Shuyi & Zhai, Qingqing & Li, Yaqiu, 2023. "Degradation modeling and RUL prediction with Wiener process considering measurable and unobservable external impacts," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    8. Wang, Jun & Zhu, Xiaoyan, 2021. "Joint optimization of condition-based maintenance and inventory control for a k-out-of-n:F system of multi-state degrading components," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(2), pages 514-529.
    9. Gao, Hongda & Cui, Lirong & Dong, Qinglai, 2020. "Reliability modeling for a two-phase degradation system with a change point based on a Wiener process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    10. Hui Chen & Jie Chen & Yangyang Lai & Xiaoqi Yu & Lijun Shang & Rui Peng & Baoliang Liu, 2024. "Discrete Random Renewable Replacements after the Expiration of Collaborative Preventive Maintenance Warranty," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-21, September.
    11. Zhengxin Zhang & Xiaosheng Si & Changhua Hu & Xiangyu Kong, 2015. "Degradation modeling–based remaining useful life estimation: A review on approaches for systems with heterogeneity," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(4), pages 343-355, August.
    12. Wang, Xiaolin & Liu, Bin & Zhao, Xiujie, 2021. "A performance-based warranty for products subject to competing hard and soft failures," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    13. Liang, Qingzhu & Yang, Yinghao & Peng, Changhong, 2023. "A reliability model for systems subject to mutually dependent degradation processes and random shocks under dynamic environments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    14. Xudan Chen & Guoxun Ji & Xinli Sun & Zhen Li, 2019. "Inverse Gaussian–based model with measurement errors for degradation analysis," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(6), pages 1086-1098, December.
    15. Chengye Ma & Yongjun Du & Lijun Shang & Li Yang & Kaiye Gao, 2023. "Random Maintenance Strategy Modeling of Warranted Products with Reliability Heterogeneity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-19, September.
    16. Liu, Di & Wang, Shaoping, 2021. "An artificial neural network supported stochastic process for degradation modeling and prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    17. Zhou, Shirong & Tang, Yincai & Xu, Ancha, 2021. "A generalized Wiener process with dependent degradation rate and volatility and time-varying mean-to-variance ratio," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    18. Dai, Anshu & Wang, Xin & Li, Yu & Li, Ting & He, Shuguang, 2023. "Design of a performance-based warranty policy with replacement–repair strategy and cumulative cost threshold," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    19. Chen, Zhen & Li, Yaping & Zhou, Di & Xia, Tangbin & Pan, Ershun, 2021. "Two-phase degradation data analysis with change-point detection based on Gaussian process degradation model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    20. Weijie Liu & Yan Shen & Lijuan Shen, 2022. "Degradation Modeling for Lithium-Ion Batteries with an Exponential Jump-Diffusion Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(16), pages 1-18, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:234:y:2020:i:5:p:708-720. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.