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Territorial control in civil wars: Theory and measurement using machine learning

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  • Therese Anders

    (5116Hertie School Data Science Lab & SCRIPTS Cluster of Excellence)

Abstract

Territorial control is a central variable for civil war research – yet, we lack sufficiently detailed data to capture subnational dynamics and offer cross-country coverage. This article advances a new measurement strategy for territorial control in asymmetric civil wars. Territorial control is conceptualized as an unobserved latent variable that can be estimated via observed variation in rebel tactics. The strategy builds on a theoretical model of rebel tactics, by which rebels use terrorism less when they control a given area – preferring conventional tactics, which require higher levels of territorial control. The latent variable, territorial control, is estimated via a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). As an observable indicator for rebel tactics, I leverage geo-coded event data and a function of the relative frequency of terrorist attacks and conventional war acts, weighted by time and distance. The model yields estimates of territorial control for asymmetric civil wars at a resolution of 0.25 decimal degree minimum diameter hexagonal grid cells. Validation of estimates for the Colombian and Nigerian civil wars suggests HMMs as a fruitful avenue to estimate spatiotemporal variation in territorial control.

Suggested Citation

  • Therese Anders, 2020. "Territorial control in civil wars: Theory and measurement using machine learning," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(6), pages 701-714, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:57:y:2020:i:6:p:701-714
    DOI: 10.1177/0022343320959687
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Christopher J Fariss & Michael R Kenwick & Kevin Reuning, 2020. "Estimating one-sided-killings from a robust measurement model of human rights," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(6), pages 801-814, November.
    3. Lorenzo Crippa & Laura Saavedra-Lux, 2023. "Double-edged sword: understanding the localized effect of foreign direct investment inflow in conflict settings," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-127, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Christopher J Fariss & James Lo, 2020. "Innovations in concepts and measurement for the study of peace and conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(6), pages 669-678, November.
    5. Jannie Lilja & Giulia Ferrari & José Alvarado & Laura-Alina Fabich & Gulzhan Asylbek Kyzy & Leah Kenny & Mazeda Hossain, 2024. "Territorial control by non-state armed groups and gendered access to healthcare in conflict using a new complex adaptive systems framework," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Blair Welsh, 2023. "Your space or mine? Competition, control, and the spatial profile of militant violence against civilians," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(4), pages 557-572, July.
    7. Florencia Montal & Carly Potz-Nielsen & Jane Lawrence Sumner, 2020. "What states want: Estimating ideal points from international investment treaty content," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(6), pages 679-691, November.

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