Spatial and Temporal Variation in Total Fertility Rate Across States and Union Territories in India, 2005–2021: Evidence Based on NFHS Data

The total fertility rate (TFR) is crucial for accessing a country’s demographic health. This study examines changes in India’s TFR from 2005 to 2021 using National Family Health Survey data, focusing on socio-demographic factors such as residence, education, and wealth index. Results show a national decline from 2.68 in 2005–2006 to 1.99 in 2021, an 18.65% decrease, with only a modest reduction of 0.19 children (8.71%) between NFHS-4 and NFHS-5. While southern and western states have reached below-replacement fertility, four large northern states Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh continue to exhibit higher fertility, reflecting uneven demographic transition. Findings indicate that while India has entered a low-fertility regime, regional disparities hinder population stabilization. Without stronger investments in women’s education, reproductive health, and regional equity, the benefits of fertility decline including lower mortality, improved gender equality, and the demographic dividend will however remain uneven. Bridging these gaps is essential for India’s demographic transition to yield inclusive social and economic progress.