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Fueling Factionalism? The Impact of Peace Processes on Rebel Group Fragmentation in Civil Wars

Author

Listed:
  • Allard Duursma
  • Feike Fliervoet

Abstract

While peace processes increase the likelihood that a civil war is resolved, they can also complicate peace by increasing the risk of rebel fragmentation. In this article, we argue that negotiations exacerbate pre-existing structural and substantial divisions within rebel organizations, therefore increasing the likelihood of a rebel split. More specifically, we put forward a theoretical framework that specifies why factions within a rebel group may disagree with the onset of negotiations, the conclusion of a peace agreement, or the implementation of an agreement—and thus break away during the peace process. We empirically assess the merit of this framework by systematically comparing the impact of these phases in a peace process on the fragmentation of rebel organizations. Using data that more accurately reflect the moment a rebel split takes place than earlier studies, we find that peace processes have a greater substantial impact on rebel fragmentation than previously assumed.

Suggested Citation

  • Allard Duursma & Feike Fliervoet, 2021. "Fueling Factionalism? The Impact of Peace Processes on Rebel Group Fragmentation in Civil Wars," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(4), pages 788-812, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:65:y:2021:i:4:p:788-812
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002720958062
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cunningham, Kathleen Gallagher, 2011. "Divide and Conquer or Divide and Concede: How Do States Respond to Internally Divided Separatists?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(2), pages 275-297, May.
    2. Matthew Blackwell & Stefano Iacus & Gary King & Giuseppe Porro, 2009. "cem: Coarsened exact matching in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 9(4), pages 524-546, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hans Jonas Gunzelmann, 2025. "How critical junctures shape secessionist movement cohesion: Strategies, framing processes, and interorganizational relations before and after the 2017 referendum in Catalonia," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 62(4), pages 961-975, July.
    2. Gunzelmann, Hans Jonas, 2025. "How critical junctures shape secessionist movement cohesion: Strategies, framing processes, and interorganizational relations before and after the 2017 referendum in Catalonia," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 62(4), pages 961-975.
    3. Barış Arı, 2023. "Peace Negotiations in Civil Conflicts: A New Dataset," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(1), pages 150-177, January.

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