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When is Democracy an Equilibrium? Theory and Evidence from Colombia’s La Violencia

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Chacón

    (New York University Abu Dhabi, New York, NY, USA, mc3801@nyu.edu)

  • James A. Robinson

    (Department of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA)

  • Ragnar Torvik

    (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway)

Abstract

The conventional wisdom is that for a democracy to be consolidated, all groups must have a chance to attain power. If they do not, then they will subvert democracy and choose to fight for power. In this article, the authors show that this wisdom is seriously incomplete because it considers absolute, not relative payoffs. Although the probability of winning an election increases with the size of a group, so does the probability of winning an armed conflict. Thus, in a situation in which all groups have a high chance of winning an election, they may also have a high chance of winning a fight. Indeed, in a natural model, the authors show that democracy may never be consolidated in such a situation. Rather, democracy may only be stable when one group is dominant. The authors explore this key aspect of the theory using data from La Violencia, a political conflict in Colombia during the years 1946—1950 between the Liberal and Conservative parties. Consistent with their results, and contrary to conventional wisdom, the authors show that fighting between the parties was more intense in municipalities where the support of the parties was more evenly balanced.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Chacón & James A. Robinson & Ragnar Torvik, 2011. "When is Democracy an Equilibrium? Theory and Evidence from Colombia’s La Violencia," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 55(3), pages 366-396, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:55:y:2011:i:3:p:366-396
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Diana Ricciulli-Marín, 2020. "The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from La Violencia in Colombia," Cuadernos de Historia Económica 53, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Leopoldo Fergusson & Pablo Querubin & Nelson A. Ruiz & Juan F. Vargas, 2021. "The Real Winner's Curse," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 52-68, January.
    3. Leopoldo Fergusson & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Don't Make War, Make Elections. Franchise Extension and Violence in XIXth-Century Colombia," Documentos CEDE 10584, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    4. Sarah Birch & Ursula Daxecker & Kristine Höglund, 2020. "Electoral violence: An introduction," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(1), pages 3-14, January.
    5. James A. Robinson & Ragnar Torvik, 2016. "Endogenous Presidentialism," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 907-942.
    6. Deniz Aksoy & David Carlson, 2022. "Electoral support and militants’ targeting strategies," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 229-241, March.
    7. Olivier Sterck, 2020. "Fighting for Votes: Theory and Evidence on the Causes of Electoral Violence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(347), pages 844-883, July.
    8. Lucas Marín Llanes, 2020. "Unintended Consequences of Alternative Development Programs: Evidence From Colombia's Illegal Crop Substitution," Documentos CEDE 18468, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    9. Leopoldo Fergusson & Ana María Ibáñez & Juan Felipe Riaño, 2020. "Conflict, Educational Attainment, and Structural Transformation: La Violencia in Colombia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(1), pages 335-371.
    10. Jean Lacroix, 2023. "Ballots Instead of Bullets? The Effect of the Voting Rights Act on Political Violence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 764-813.
    11. Jack Paine, 2024. "A comment on Powell and formal models of power sharing ," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 36(2), pages 212-233, April.
    12. Juan F. Vargas & Leopoldo Fergusson, 2013. "Don’t Make War, Make Elections. Franchise Extension and Violence in XIXth-Century Colombia," Working Papers 313, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    13. Michael McBride & Gary Milante & Stergios Skaperdas, 2011. "Peace and War With Endogenous State Capacity," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 55(3), pages 446-468, June.

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